Herd immunity not close

It may be time for the Daily Herald to have their own Bob Oswald fact check its opinion pieces related to the coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, since the "information" shared in Michael Barone's recent column flies in the face of scientific reality. Herd immunity for COVID-19 is predicted to occur when between 60%-70% of the population has been exposed to it and have developed antibodies. Vaccines can accomplish this if widely received, yet a vaccine for COVID-19, despite the president's shameful promises, is likely many months away and will be available to the general public no sooner than the spring/summer of 2021, if we are lucky.

Without a vaccine, that would mean 197 million people (assuming a 60% herd immunity rate) would need to be infected with the virus. There are currently fewer than 7 million people who have been found to have had the virus in the U.S. It is estimated that upward of 6.5 million people (assuming a 3.3% fatality rate) would die if mitigation efforts were abandoned. We recently heard the president state that the fatality rate was much higher, perhaps closer to 5%, meaning that over 9.5 million people would die in the U.S. alone. Those are tragic numbers filled with much pain and suffering for American families. Other countries that initially tried this approach abandoned it when the reality of the infection's devastation was revealed.

Implying that the U.S. is close to herd immunity is absurd and downright dangerous. Lives were saved because of the shutdown. First responders and health care workers were able to catch a breath and finally access much-needed life saving protective equipment. Had people across the U.S., and the president, taken the virus more seriously, more lives would have been saved. We will never achieve a robust economy until the virus is controlled.

Carole H. Martz

Mount Prospect