Maker of COVID-19 forecast models is urging caution

NORMAL, Ill. (AP) - As the state prepares to ease some restrictions designed to limit the spread of the coronavirus, an Illinois State University professor who has been developing models of the pandemic since January is urging caution.

'œEvery model we look at agrees on one thing, '¦ it is too soon to remove the lockdown measures,'ť said Olcay Akman, who also serves as editor in chief of 'œLetters in Biomathematics.'ť The peer-reviewed journal publishes mathematics and statistics research related to biological, ecological, medical, and environmental settings.

The rates may differ, he said. For example, his model forecasts 170,000 coronavirus-related deaths nationwide by August; the Centers for Disease Control forecasts 147,000. Both agree on the value of restrictive measures, said Akman.

'œIllinois is one of the better states,'ť said Akman, noting that it took action, such as closing schools, more quickly than some states. 'œI think we'll reap the benefit.'ť

Akman thinks the country needs 'œextensive testing, vaccinations and robust contact tracing policies before we start letting people mingle together again.'ť

He said the course of the pandemic has been following his model closely '“ 'œunfortunately.'ť The one surprise for him was the big jump in cases in mid-February.

'œWe knew it wasn't going to go to zero but we were surprised that is exploded so exponentially,'ť said Akman.

Several factors go into developing models, he explained, including how readily the disease spreads; probability of exposure, such as density of the population; and the probability of infection, which involves the activity required to be infected.

One reason why COVID-19 spreads so easily is that people can be contagious before the show symptoms, said Akman. 'œYou may not even know you're infected.'ť

'œWe're lucky in McLean County. We're not a population-dense county,'ť said Carla Pohl, a nurse practitioner and associate professor of nursing who teaches public health classes at ISU. She also noted that McLean County has a relatively young median age of about 36 and no big food processing plants, which have been a source of outbreaks in some communities.

Pohl said computer modeling would have been helpful when she was working as a midwife during the H1N1 pandemic a decade ago 'œto prepare for what we were seeing in the hospital.'ť

Having information on how many cases to expect and how quickly 'œmakes all the difference in the world,'ť she said.

'œYou can try to implement procedures to cope with the onslaught of patients. '¦ It's a planning document,'ť said Pohl, speaking as someone who has studied and taught public health. She said her views do not represent the university, McLean County Health Department or the Board of Health, of which she is president.

To get such information out more quickly, 'œLetters in Biomathematics'ť has put in place a rapid review process.

'œWe didn't think we could wait for a year to get information to help our decision makers with these policies,'ť said Akman.

The reviewers, who are epidemiologists and mathematicians, agree to review each manuscript in four to five days. They are published online as 'œprovisionally approved,'ť while a more thorough peer review continues, Akman explained.

The manuscripts cover such things the impact of lifting lockdowns, mortality rates for different age groups, and frailty models. They eventually will be combined in a special issue on COVID-19 about a year from now, he said.

Although COVID-19 is a new virus, 'œit comes from a family,'ť said Pohl. 'œWe know how the others in the family act. '¦ It hangs around in the air, so it's going to be contagious.'ť

That is among the reasons for recommendations such as limiting social contacts and wearing masks.

'œYou can only give people the information that they need to know and, hopefully, make the right choices, whether it's exercise, nutrition or wearing a mask,'ť said Pohl.

The difference is that, while the choice not to exercise regularly or eat healthy diet affects only you, the choice not to wear a mask 'œimpacts everybody else, it puts everybody else at risk,'ť said Pohl.

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Source: The (Bloomington) Pantagraph, https://bit.ly/2zyhvmW