AP FACT CHECK: White House overly downbeat about budgeteers
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Donald Trump's spokesman went out of his way Wednesday to cast doubt on Congress' budget experts, perhaps anticipating disappointing results from a coming analysis of a Trump-backed plan to "repeal and replace" former President Barack Obama's health care law. Too far out of his way.
Citing the Congressional Budget Office's earlier estimates on the Obama law, spokesman Sean Spicer said "If you're looking at the CBO for accuracy, you're looking in the wrong place." He added: "I mean they were way, way off the last time in every aspect of how they scored and projected Obamacare."
Spicer is correct that CBO, well respected on Capitol Hill for the honesty and fairness of its work, overestimated the number of people who would sign up to purchase insurance in state and federal marketplaces. CBO had earlier predicted that 23 million people would be enrolled in such Obamacare exchanges last year, for example, and the number proved to be about 12 million.
But he ignored one big reason why: CBO's estimate was based largely on a projection that many private employers would dump workers off their employer-provided plans, forcing them to seek coverage under the new law. When that didn't happen, the number of sign-ups declined accordingly.
In fact, CBO has hardly been way off "in every aspect" of its predictions, as Spicer said.
A study by the liberal-leaning Commonwealth Fund foundation found that CBO's predictions were more accurate than other forecasters. "CBO did much better than other estimators - that has also been true in the past," said New York University professor Shelly Glied. "Nobody can actually foresee the future, but CBO seems to do a better job than anyone else."
It's also worth noting the widespread support CBO enjoys both from both Democrats and Republicans. Its current director, Keith Hall, was chosen by Republicans and served on the Council of Economic Advisers in the most recent Bush administration. Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., a former chairman of the House Budget Committee, was a vocal supporter of Hall's predecessor, Doug Elmendorf, who was named by Democrats.
The CBO analysis matters because it'll probably predict how many people would lose health coverage under the measure, which could be politically damaging. And if the plan doesn't meet the goal of at least saving the government a modest $2 billion, the legislation as written could be subject to a filibuster from Senate Democrats.
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