Gonzales: Can Cubs keep up robust pace? Next 6 weeks could be the key

The Cubs' recent surge has made a believer out of Adbert Alzolay and his 100-plus days of major league service time.

"Right now we're the best team in this division, to be honest," Alzolay said Wednesday after the Cubs swept the Padres for their 15th win in their last 19 games entering a seven-game trip to the West Coast.

Instead of a major breakup that seemed likely after a 5-8 start darkened by the struggles of the rotation and a selfish hitting approach, the Cubs have climbed into first place in a muddled National League Central thanks to an array of contributions.

With slightly less than two-thirds of the season remaining, there are realistic reasons to believe the Cubs can actually sustain their hold in the division, or at least remain in playoff contention for the duration.

But the next six weeks could dictate whether general manager Jed Hoyer keeps the core intact or looks to the future by tendering offers for soon-to-be free agents such as Kris Bryant and Javier Baez before the July 31 trade deadline.

Here are a list of reasons to believe why the Cubs may remain a contender, and why they could fade for the third time in four seasons.

Contender

A healthy Bryant has returned to NL Most Valuable Player form.

Bryant was limited to 102 games in 2018 - when the Cubs blew a five-game lead with 26 games left - because of a shoulder injury that harnessed his production for more than four months.

A wrist injury on a successful diving catch attempt in left field hampered him during the bulk of a 60-game season last summer.

But his improved health, along with his adjustments in addressing weaknesses in his strike zone, have carried the Cubs' lineup.

The unselfish approaches of Matt Duffy and Nico Hoerner also has invigorated an offense that was once stubbornly destined for two outcomes - hit home runs or strike out.

An unheralded but productive bullpen has more than compensated for the overall inability of the starters to pitch into the sixth inning with consistency.

From veteran closer Craig Kimbrel to rookies Keegan Thompson, Justin Steele and Tommy Nance, the Cubs bullpen possesses the second-lowest ERA (2.64).

Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty's oblique injury could sideline him for up to two months, severely weakening a Cardinals rotation that lost Miles Mikolas for at least one month due to a forearm injury. Those injuries, coupled with a bullpen that has walked 131 in 201 innings and has allowed 47 percent of inherited runners to score, hurt the Cardinals' chances.

The Brewers' offense, which averages an NL-low 3.82 runs per game, is enduring without leadoff batter Lorenzo Cain to a hamstring injury, and slugger Christian Yelich has coped with back pain.

Pretender

The Cubs' bullpen has accounted for nearly 44 percent of the innings, and half of that eight-man bullpen lacks playoff experience or pitching under the scrutiny of a battling for a playoff berth.

The rotation can't match the depth of the Brewers or Cardinals in power pitching, especially after trading Yu Darvish last December.

The Cubs have won 15 of their last 19 despite losing eight players to the injured list. They also went 5-1 while Anthony Rizzo was sidelined because of his latest back ailment. But there are no assurances that those players can sustain the stunning production provided by their replacements.

The offense has leaned heavily on Bryant and Baez, who has 10 home runs and 27 RBIs in his last 36 games. That duo, along with catcher Willson Contreras, have managed to avoid the IL.

But losing any of those three players for an extended period might be too much for them to overcome.

The Cubs survived a five-game losing streak by embarking on a 22-9 run in their last 31 games entering their four-game series Thursday at San Francisco.

Longtime Giants fans will recall the infamous "June Swoon," in which their lads posted seven consecutive losing records in the month of June (1971-1977), ruining their last six postseason hopes.

The Cubs shouldn't worry about style points in June, as winning should at least provide much-welcomed enjoyment and postpone the eventual reality of breaking up at least part of their core.

• Mark Gonzales is a veteran sports writer who covered the White Sox from 2005-2012 and the Cubs from 2013-2020 for the Tribune. Follow him on Twitter @MDGonzales