Amid Democratic scandals, Illinois Republicans hoping to flip legislative seats

Illinois Republicans are hoping to buck historic midterm election trends by focusing on affordability and Democratic scandals in the Statehouse as they seek to emerge from superminority status.

President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in Illinois, and midterm elections have spelled bad news throughout U.S. history for the party that holds the White House. But Democratic corruption and sexual harassment scandals have dominated this summer’s headlines in Illinois politics, and state tax burdens remain higher in Illinois than in most other states.

Those factors have GOP leaders of the General Assembly optimistic that this election represents an opportunity to gain ground.

“There's a lot of things going on in Illinois that certainly is motivating voters, and I think the voter turnout is going to be what's instrumental in winning additional seats this year,” House Republican Leader Tony McCombie of Savanna told Capitol News Illinois on Thursday at Republican Day at the State Fair in Springfield.

Candidate after candidate on Thursday said most of their conversations with voters come back to issues, especially cost of living and high taxes.

Gov. JB Pritzker and Democrats would prefer to make this year’s election a referendum on Trump. At their Democrat Day events on Wednesday, they hammered Republicans for supporting the war in Iran, which has raised gas prices, and tariffs, which have more broadly increased prices.

Senate Republican Leader John Curran of Downers Grove told supporters at a state party meeting on Thursday morning that Republicans should make this year’s election a referendum on Democrats, taxes and spending.

“This election is a referendum on JB Pritzker and his failed economic policies for the state of Illinois,” Curran said in an interview. “We have to talk about the Illinois story here, not what's going on nationally.”

Targets for ouster

Republicans have been in the superminority in the House since 2018, but they’ve since held ground, preserving 40 of 118 seats. It’s been worse on the Senate side, where the party has been in the superminority since 2012 and currently holds 19 of 59 seats.

This year, several legislative races are expected to be close, including for some seats held by GOP incumbents, especially in the suburbs.

Rep. Martin McLaughlin of Barrington Hills is facing Democrat Maria Peterson for the second consecutive election, having beat her by just 47 votes in 2024.

“Everybody's been doubting me for years and it just seems to keep working,” McLaughlin said. “So maybe it's the message, maybe it's being genuine, authentic, and direct. And I've always tried to be that. It doesn't always rub everybody the right way, but with me, you know what you're going to get.”

McLaughlin is taking help from the House Republican Organization this time after declining it two years ago. That allows him more access to party staff and money, and he said he believes McCombie has improved her caucus’ political operation.

“I want programs that are going to move the needle forward and get more butts in the seats, and I think people are moving in that direction,” McLaughlin said. “The communication success that I'm having individually is actually starting to be replicated amongst the group.”

That same Northwest suburban area is also the site of a tough Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Darby Hills of Barrington Hills and Democratic Rep. Nabeela Syed of Inverness

McCombie declined to say how many seats she’s aiming to pick up, but said the 112th District represented by Rep. Katie Stuart, a Democrat from Edwardsville, 76th District represented by Rep. Amy “Murri” Briel, a Democrat from La Salle, and 97th District represented by Rep. Jessica Dixon Heitman, a Plainfield Democrat, are among her targets. Stuart is facing Jimmy Ford and Briel is up against Liz Bishop for a second time.

The 97th District was held by former Rep. Harry Benton until early July, when he resigned after a report by the Legislative Inspector General found he engaged in a “pattern” of sexual abuse.

Benton beat Republican Gabby Shanahan by about 4 points two years ago and she told Capitol News Illinois she thinks victory is within reach.

“I think we have a very good chance,” said Shanahan, a grassroots engagement director for Americans for Prosperity. “Obviously always a very winnable district for Republicans, and then I think people are just hungry for change. They're hungry for trust in government. They're hungry for transparency in government, accountability in government. And I think that's what I offer.”

Ethics issues

Republicans are using Benton’s allegations, as well as the federal indictment of Rep. Carol Ammons of Urbana gainst Democrats.

The new chair of the Illinois Republican Party, Bob Grogan, said he’s disappointed unethical behavior continues to be an issue in the state.

“I don't view it as an opportunity. I think it's disgusting that we even have to talk about it,” Grogan said. “It's a vast disappointment, and we're going to point out the differences between the two parties.”

Curran said voters are also not singularly focused on ethics.

“We're not hearing ethics at the door,” he said. “We're hearing cost of living at the door, but ethics is something that we want to come in with a strong plan and tackle in a veto session. It is past due, and what's going on in the House right now, it shows that we are lagging.”