It’s ordinary people, not bombs, that determine the fate of nations

Here we go again!

Another president. Another bombing campaign. Another attempt to force a regime to change its behavior.

Haven’t we seen this movie before? Yet, every administration believes this time will be different. Every administration is convinced that enough military pressure, enough economic pain, or enough international isolation will eventually force a government to surrender, negotiate, or collapse.

Sometimes it works. Often it doesn't.

But this is not another article on power, force, might, left, right. It’s about people, the people who make decisions and the people who live under those decisions.

Having backpacked around the world for a year, then lived in the United States, Morocco, Estonia, Eritrea, and Luxembourg, I've experienced everyday life in some very different places.

And I still don't get it.

How can leaders with so much intelligence and insight at their fingertips not get one simple thing, something I first noticed decades ago?

Whether it was tea with families in Morocco, conversations with students in Eritrea, or chats with locals from Amsterdam to New Zealand, it didn’t seem to matter. Different cultures. Different histories.

What I saw. What I heard.

Wherever I went, people wanted remarkably similar lives. Not perfect lives. Just ordinary ones.

What did that mean? A job, a house, a meal with family, and some sort of technology to stay connected to the world. I doubt it’s changed.

Here's the catch.

People want a say in the direction of their own lives and society, even when that say is restricted. They almost always resist outsiders choosing that direction for them.

After all, an outsider doesn't just threaten a nation’s leaders. An outsider threatens what feels familiar — food, language, traditions, way of life.

So, how do leaders miss that? And why? Why do so many leaders think they’ve cracked the code when it comes to invading another country?

Are they looking at the wrong things?

Leaders can count aircraft, missiles, and soldiers. They can map territory and estimate casualties. But they cannot measure what ordinary people will endure to protect what feels like home.

Then again, maybe ordinary people were never their priority. Maybe their priority was something else.

• Originally from Addison, Dan Franch now calls Luxembourg home. He works as a private tutor and helps students navigate the U.S. university admissions process.