At the trade deadline, the Cubs shouldn’t take Pete Crow-Armstrong’s season for granted

“I’m absolutely burnt out from talking to you guys,” Pete Crow-Armstrong told the reporters huddled around his Wrigley Field locker when the Chicago Cubs returned from the All-Star break. “I’m not going to lie.”

For the most part, Crow-Armstrong speaks with a lot of self-awareness and just enough filter. The young center fielder understood the face-of-the-franchise responsibilities when he agreed to a six-year, $115 million contract extension before Opening Day in March. He also mentioned Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani by name, acknowledging his media demands don’t quite rise to their levels.

That passing reference is a reminder that the Cubs could have the best player on the field — on both sides of the ball — for every postseason game they enter this fall. It’s not hyperbole when FanGraphs (6.3) and Baseball Reference (6) both rank Crow-Armstrong as the current major-league leader in wins above replacement.

Judge’s fractured rib is a crucial variable for the New York Yankees’ World Series odds. If Ohtani’s left knee heals in time to allow him to return as a starting pitcher, then the Los Angeles Dodgers will clearly have the best all-around baseball talent on the planet, if not in the sport’s history. Major League Baseball’s postseason format is also widely seen as a crapshoot.

But Crow-Armstrong’s rapid development into a superstar should be factored into the club’s plans for the Aug. 3 trade deadline, because you never know when another spectacular season like this will come around.

“He’s got to maintain this approach,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said, “but this current approach is exactly what we always hoped he could get to. It just came a lot faster than we thought.”

Hoyer was the general manager of the 2016 World Series team that believes it would not have gathered for a 10-year reunion at Wrigley Field last weekend without the trade-deadline acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, an All-Star closer who would spend only a few months in a Cubs uniform but would be remembered forever.

As team president, Hoyer executed the sell-off at the 2021 trade deadline that unloaded Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Báez for a collection of unproven talent that included Crow-Armstrong, building for a time when the Cubs would again be perennial playoff contenders.

That moment is here.

Even though Baseball Reference gives the Cubs drastically different outlooks for winning the division (2.6%) and making the postseason (80.2%), the club has the first-rate defense that plays up in October, a big opportunity to upgrade the pitching staff at the trade deadline and a singular performer.

Crow-Armstrong, 24, is the same age Bryant was when he won the 2016 National League MVP award and made the play in Cleveland that ended Game 7 and Chicago’s 108-year championship drought.

Báez was nearing his 24th birthday when he became a breakout star of the 2016 playoffs, earning co-MVP honors in the NL Championship Series.

In trading fan favorite Báez to the New York Mets, the Cubs received Crow-Armstrong, an electric prospect with natural athleticism, room to grow and a willingness to be coached over the years.

Now with a more selective hitting plan, Crow-Armstrong has more than doubled his walk rate from last season without sacrificing power (21 homers) while further accentuating his speed (25 stolen bases).

This is the name in the lineup that the other team circles, the player you have to build the entire game plan around in October, when the margin for error is razor-thin.

“He’s not going to chase the breaking ball away,” Hoyer said. “He’s going to have a disciplined approach. He’s kind of impossible when you get to that place. With the ability to impact on the bases, you can’t pitch around him because it’s an extra-base hit. And if you pitch to him, it might be an extra-base hit. That’s the real beauty, he can get into scoring position so easily. You can’t walk guys like that.”

Crow-Armstrong also continues to play Gold Glove-level defense at a premium position, leading the majors in Statcast’s outs above average and fielding run value.

For perspective, listen to Cubs manager Craig Counsell, who is not exactly excitable or prone to exaggeration.

Now in his 12th season as a major-league manager, Counsell’s frame of reference for Crow-Armstrong also covers his 16 seasons as a major-league player, including the World Series rings he earned with the 1997 Florida Marlins and the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.

“Offensively, the on-base component of leading off, that’s a big deal,” Counsell said. “He’s on base a ton for some really good hitters behind him. That makes a huge difference. He’s just a threat. He’s a tough, tough at-bat for a pitcher in all ways.

“Defensively, there are just plays that he’s making (that) we’ll probably start to take it for granted a little bit. Nobody else is making those plays. And you’re going to have to watch baseball a long time to find someone who’s going to make those plays. That’s how good it is.”

The projection systems don’t think the Cubs will catch the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central race. Trading for an established starting pitcher and a late-inning reliever (or two) will cost a ton of young talent. Baseball can be so random that there will be no guarantees in the playoffs, even for the mighty Dodgers.

But that uncertainty also creates an opening for a team with solid fundamentals and an MVP candidate in the middle of everything. The how and why behind Crow-Armstrong’s evolution make the Cubs believe this will be more sustainable, that he won’t fall off a late-season cliff.

Standing at his Wrigley Field locker, Crow-Armstrong had a light blue hoodie pulled over his ears and part of his face. Sunglasses and a Cubs hat resting on his head. He noticed when a media member used the word “seamless.”

“Nothing’s seamless about it,” Crow-Armstrong said. “Just a lot of good work, really. I just think it’s a lot of natural growth as a hitter. I’m turning myself into a real hitter. I feel more like a complete hitter, and I’m looking forward to continuing that as we go.”

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