Fielders of dreams: Can defense lead Cubs to a championship?
Can defense win championships?
In football, of course. Basketball, yes, very important. But what about baseball?
The Cubs are the best fielding team in the majors by a wide margin, whether you prefer measuring by Fangraphs.com's defensive runs saved or StatCast's fielding run value.
The last time the Cubs led the major leagues in either of those defensive categories was 2016, when they won the World Series. Does that mean the Cubs are on track for another title?
Well sure, it could happen, but this team hasn't been as dominant as the 2016 crew, not even close. And baseball's a little different, since defense is a mixture of pitching and fielding.
“You have to score some runs,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said when asked if fielding can win championships. “You're going to have to pitch well. But it's a big part of it, absolutely. If it's a big part of the regular season, it's a big part of the playoffs.”
Of course, there's no defense against a 3-run homer, and that's what ruined the Cubs' chances of taking the series finale against Detroit on Wednesday. A 3-run blast from Tigers second baseman Hao-Yu Lee in the fourth inning broke a 1-1 tie and led to a 5-1 Cubs loss at Wrigley Field.
Looking historically, sometimes defense matters when it comes to determining the best teams. In the last 10 full seasons, the World Series champion has finished top five in fielding five times.
The worst defensive teams to win a title were the Dodgers the past two years, both times finishing with negative run value. Last season, though, the Toronto Blue Jays led the majors in FRV, and they almost won the Series. The Cubs finished second in fielding in 2025, by the way.
Cubs defense has been a focus recently, mostly because of Pete Crow-Armstrong. Not sure who came up with this stat first, but PCA now has the most five-star catches in the StatCast era, which began in 2016.
That sounds like something out of high school recruiting, but a five-star catch is one with less than a 25% chance of getting snagged. Zach McKinstry's sinking liner in Monday's sixth inning had an 86% chance of being a hit before Crow-Armstrong sprinted in and made a diving catch.
The catch in front of the wall off the bat of Ben Malgeri on Tuesday was not a five-star catch by definition. It had a 48% chance of falling in, per StatCast. After the game Counsell said he liked the catch at the wall better than Monday's dive.
“There's just plays that he's making — I'm glad we're talking about it — we'll probably start to take for granted a little bit,” Counsell said of PCA. “But they're plays nobody else is going to make.”
Crow-Armstrong leads all MLB players in individual fielding run value. Second baseman Nico Hoerner ranks in the top 20. He made a costly error in Monday's game, but that wasn't the reason the Cubs lost. Every Cubs position player, minus the catchers, ranks in the top 100 in fielding run value, including Seiya Suzuki in right.
The Cubs got off to a quick start Wednesday when Suzuki homered in the first inning. But Detroit's Spencer Torkelson tied it with a solo homer in the second.
Cubs starter Colin Rea worked out of a jam in the third inning after the Tigers had runners on first and third with nobody out. In the fourth, Rea allowed the first two batters to reach base, got the next two outs, but the downside of flirting with danger arrived with Lee's 3-run homer, which came on a 3-0 fastball.
“With two outs there, you've got to be thinking a little bit better,” Rea said of the home run. “Hindsight, but I've already fallen behind to that guy, I don't want to give in to him. Maybe take a chance on the next guy.”
The Cubs need to enjoy Thursday's off-day, because they have games scheduled for 17 straight days after that, including a home makeup against Toronto on Aug. 6.
One injury note, Counsell said pitchers Hoby Milner (appendicitis) and Edward Cabrera (adductor strain) are both set to throw live bullpens on Friday.