What to know about the Iran deal

Almost four months after starting a war with Iran, President Donald Trump said the United States has reached a peace deal. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” he posted Sunday on social media. “Congratulations to all!”

But details are scarce, and experts say that based on what both sides are saying, it’s not clear what the United States got from Iran that it didn’t already have before the war.

“Even in the best case,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, who has advised Republican and Democratic administrations on Iran, “it appears that the tough issues — including but not limited to the nuclear program — remain deferred to future talks.”

Here’s what to know about this deal with Iran:

Iran closed one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes when the United States and Israel launched their attacks in February, prompting gas prices to surge and creating global supply chain issues. Iran also fired missiles and damaged energy facilities across the Middle East. The result was a global energy crisis that U.S. oil executives recently warned they couldn’t head off for much longer. Prices for other goods are rising, too, worrying Republicans.

With the political pressure on, Trump claims the Strait of Hormuz will reopen as soon as this week. But Iran hasn’t explicitly agreed to that: Iranian leaders made clear that they believed there was much still to discuss.

Iran’s control of the strait is an effective leverage point against the U.S., and its leaders are unlikely to fully reopen it without getting something in exchange, Maloney said.

If Iran managed to retain some kind of control over one of the world’s biggest shipping routes, “that would be a huge defeat for the U.S.,” said Mark Cancian, a military expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “And it would in effect be attacks on the world economy — plus a really bad precedent because there are a lot of other straits around the world that countries would like to exert some sovereignty over.”

Trump gave many reasons for starting this war, such as trying to nurture an uprising in Iran that never materialized. As the war progressed, he kept coming back to a need to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran has been steadily getting closer to being able to have a nuclear weapon, saying its purposes are peaceful.

In an interview with Fox after the deal was announced, Vice President JD Vance said Iran committed in this peace deal to not building one: “They will never have a nuclear weapon, and not just pursue a nuclear weapon but procure or try to buy a nuclear weapon, as well. That’s built into this agreement.”

But just like the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian leaders suggested their nuclear ambitions were up for negotiation. And experts say a deal on something as complicated and sensitive as this could take months to finalize.

Even if Iran agrees to a strict deal curbing its nuclear program, the U.S. will either have to take Iran’s word that it won’t pursue a nuclear bomb or get Iran to allow third-party observers into the country, Maloney said.

“I think it’s possible for the president to come out of this war with the clear assertion that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon in the near future or anytime soon,” she said. “But whether the Iranians seek to do so nonetheless is probably beyond his control.”

Iranian leaders suggested it’s possible the U.S. will lift a wide range of sanctions and unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets. If so, that would be a significant concession, my Washington Post colleagues report.

Iran got $2 billion from the U.S. a decade ago as part of a nuclear deal between the two countries. That was under President Barack Obama’s administration, and Trump blasted it at the time as a giveaway to Tehran.

Before this current deal was announced, the Trump administration was floating the possibility of giving Iran more than the nation ever got under its nuclear deal with Obama: as much as $20 billion in unfrozen assets.

It’s hard to assess what either side is getting out of this, experts say, because the text of a deal hasn’t been released yet.

“The details will be important” said Cancian, “and right now we don’t really know much.”