Could a Bears move give Illinois Republicans midterm momentum? Experts weigh in

As news broke Friday that the Chicago Bears have moved closer to finalizing a move to Indiana, Republican gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey was quick off the mark.

“After 100 years, the Chicago Bears won’t be in Illinois — and it’s all because JB Pritzker and his disastrous agenda forced the heart and soul of Chicagoland to abandon its identity, its fans, and its state for more competitive waters,” charged the former state senator.

Gov. JB Pritzker’s staff had a response ready.

“A private citizen like Darren Bailey can say as he pleases, as he has no authority over anything. He has no plan and has no new ideas,” Pritzker spokesman Alex Gough contended.

Unlike wonkier election issues, potentially losing the beloved football franchise to the Hoosier State is a relatable topic for voters. And if the Bears close a deal with Indiana after lawmakers in Springfield failed to pass legislation enabling an Arlington Heights stadium, millions of Illinoisans will be chagrined.

But would the raw wound give Republicans like Bailey and attorney Don Tracy, who is battling Democrat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton for an open U.S. Senate seat, any traction in a solidly blue state?

“The short answer is no,” College of DuPage political science Professor Melissa Mouritsen said.

“But I think the question is — traction with whom? Who is the voter that will choose Bailey or Tracy over Pritzker or Stratton because of just the Bears? I am sure the answer is not zero voters, but it's probably pretty close,” she noted.

Tracy seized the opportunity to direct a salvo at Stratton after the Bears board of directors agreed to advance a stadium development project in Hammond, Indiana.

“The Bears’ departure is another warning sign that the Pritzker-Stratton ‘Illinois Blueprint’ is a recipe for governmental failure,” the former state GOP chair said in a statement Saturday

“Families are leaving Illinois. Businesses are leaving. Investment is leaving. Now one of the most recognizable brands in professional sports appears to be leaving, too.”

Stratton deflected the jibe, saying she “has been aligned with Gov. Pritzker on wanting the Bears to stay in Illinois and being open to a sensible solution that protects taxpayers. Together, they will keep working to lower costs for working families, growing the economy, and maintaining fiscal discipline.”

Bailey, of downstate Xenia, directly blamed the governor in what’s likely to be a familiar refrain if legislators can’t contrive a Bears solution.

“Pritzker has nothing left to offer residents or one of the biggest drivers of tourism in our state, losing in eight years what Illinois spent the past 100 years trying to keep. It’s a sad day in Illinois,” he said.

Gough countered that Bailey was “perfectly willing to raise taxes on all Illinoisans to build a stadium for a nine-billion-dollar sports franchise. From the start, Gov. Pritzker’s guiding principle has been that he will not hand over taxpayer dollars to fund building a privately owned stadium.”

Political scientist Kent Redfield noted that “because the Democrats are obviously running everything, they’re going to wear the jacket for whatever bad things happen.”

“The Democratic leadership has been very ineffective in terms of working together,” added Redfield, University of Illinois at Springfield professor emeritus.

But there’s just not a large reservoir of Republican votes out there, he said.

Couple that with a dwindling number of significant GOP donors and a lack of leadership, “where’s the path to victory?” Redfield asked.

“Some people will grumble about Pritzker, but Democrats will go to the polls and vote for Stratton and they’ll vote for Pritzker.”