What the Blackhawks’ loss of another prospect means in the big picture

It was never going to be perfect.

There was zero likelihood of everything going exactly as planned for Kyle Davidson when he set out to execute his rebuild as Chicago Blackhawks general manager.

Davidson’s goal was largely to rebuild the Blackhawks through the draft, and that meant accumulating many picks and then selecting many players. He and his director of amateur scouting, Mike Doneghey, knew they’d likely have some misses in there, but they always believed as long as they drafted well enough as a whole, the misses wouldn’t be missed.

The other real possibility of drafting so many prospects in such a short time was that not all those drafted players would feel like they had the clear path to the NHL. When a team drafts 38 players, including 28 in the first three rounds, over the last four years, some of those players might think their NHL goal might be easier achieved elsewhere.

That has happened twice to the Blackhawks under Davidson. Forward Dominic James, a 2022 sixth-round pick, declined a contract offer, opted to wait out the Blackhawks’ signing rights after finishing his college career and became an unrestricted free agent in August. He later signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

On Monday, the Blackhawks traded the rights to forward Jack Pridham, a 2024 third-round pick, to the Lightning for a third-round pick just before his draft rights were set to expire later in the day. It’s unclear whether the Blackhawks offered Pridham a contract, but he made it clear he didn’t plan to sign with Chicago even if he committed to a college and extended its rights window. The Blackhawks saw the writing on the wall and recouped the same draft pick value. The Lightning announced after the trade Pridham had committed to a school, giving them two years to retain his rights.

The Blackhawks liked both prospects and had developmental plans for each. For James, the Blackhawks wanted him to end the 2024-25 season with the Rockford IceHogs in the AHL and begin his entry-level contract the next season with the chance of making the NHL out of training camp. For Pridham, the Blackhawks drafted him with the belief he’d play in college and was in no rush to turn pro. They thought his game and body would benefit from college hockey.

In both cases, the players didn’t share the Blackhawks’ vision and weren’t completely confident there would be a roster spot waiting for them in the end. They looked at the plethora of young players in the Blackhawks system — from the NHL to AHL to unsigned — and the math didn’t add up. The Blackhawks’ pool of under-23 players was crowded, and a growing number of players were taking up NHL spots.

After this season, 10 players Davidson drafted, including seven forwards, have already played in the NHL. Roman Kantserov, who recently signed, will likely make No. 11 come next season, and there’s a chance the Blackhawks could have even more next season with A.J. Spellacy (who was drafted just before Pridham) and Marek Vanacker (a 2024 first-round pick) starting their entry-level deals. There are plenty of other Davidson draft picks with the IceHogs, too.

With how things played out with James and Pridham, two questions jump to mind. First, could the Blackhawks have done anything different to keep them happy? Second, how much does their departure affect the Blackhawks?

Let’s start with the first question. With James, he might have signed if the Blackhawks had burned his first entry-level contract year and played him in the NHL at the end of the 2024-25 season. The Blackhawks did burn the year for Ryan Greene, Oliver Moore and Sam Rinzel out of college that season, but they were also higher-profile picks. James, who will turn 24 in July, was seen as more of a fourth-line center. He had returned to Minnesota-Duluth for a fourth year because of an injury as a junior, and there was no guarantee he’d make it as an NHL player. The Blackhawks wanted to give him a longer runway.

With Pridham, the Blackhawks could have signed him after last season. He showed some promise in the OHL and was already wavering on whether he’d follow through with going to college. He decommitted from Boston University and spoke at Blackhawks development camp about wanting to see whether he’d be able to turn pro. But the Blackhawks didn’t think he was exactly ready for pro hockey, and it doesn’t sound as if they were convinced of that after his past OHL season, too. He was among the OHL’s top producers, but he was also an overager: He turns 21 in October.

Pridham also recognized he could force the Blackhawks into a decision and played his cards well with his rights expiring. He got what he wanted in the end.

As for the second question, James bet on himself, signed with the Lightning because he thought there was a quicker NHL route and has been proved right. He was consistently in the Lightning’s NHL lineup this season in a bottom-six role and contributed in the playoffs. He’s probably what the Blackhawks hoped he would be.

With Pridham, time will tell. He might also be an NHL player. He has a chance with his speed and shot to make it. Hockey Prospecting’s NHL-equivalency projection model gives him a 35% chance to be an NHL player.

But two things can also be true. The Blackhawks probably wish both players were still in their roster pool, and both could have become NHL players for them. But considering how many other picks the Blackhawks have made and those players’ individual projections, the Blackhawks should have plenty without James and Pridham. It does help Davidson has potentially hit on some picks, such as Kantserov and Lardis, outside of the first round.

That’s all not to say the Blackhawks are safe from a player wanting out again. But it does reinforce the Blackhawks have to be aggressive in signing their prospects, especially the ones who aren’t so easily replaceable. You can imagine Václav Nestrašil, a 2025 first-round pick, is a major priority to sign after his upcoming sophomore season at UMass. The Blackhawks will undoubtedly be happy to welcome Nestrašil and John Mustard, a 2024 third-round pick, to the NHL late in the 2026-27 season after their college seasons are done. The same will go for Mason West, another 2025 first-round pick, in time.

To be fair, Davidson has signed most of his drafted players so far. He signed his first eight draft picks in the 2022 draft, his first seven picks of the 2023 draft, and four of his top six picks in 2024, with Pridham and Mustard the other two. He’s already signed his first pick in 2025, Anton Frondell. To get back a third-rounder for Pridham was a positive, too.

Although the Blackhawks haven’t had a flood of prospects leave, the organization understands it’s something it has to monitor and proactively manage. Part of that is assistant general manager of player development Mark Eaton and his staff continue to have contact with the prospects. But it’s also on Davidson not to oversaturate his prospect pool. The Blackhawks can’t have the same rate of incoming prospects in the future as they have in recent years.

With one first-round pick this year, that will be easy enough for Davidson to prioritize. Even with three second-rounders, Davidson can probably use those to fill a void in defenseman depth among his prospects and feel like his roster pool is bursting at the seams. But come next year at the 2027 draft with three first-rounders, two second-rounders and two third-rounders, Davidson might be better off using a combination of those picks in trades for proven players or moving those picks to later years and spreading them out. At some point, enough is enough, and there will be a greater risk of a first-round pick seeking a way out.

Ultimately, James and Pridham’s not signing wasn’t what the Blackhawks hoped for, but it also isn’t likely to deter what they’re trying to build. They can easily absorb that. It is something for them to keep an eye on in the future, though.

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