Maton’s struggles start with curveball
Looking at the Statcast assessment of Cubs reliever Phil Maton in 2025, when he pitched for the Cardinals and Rangers, it's easy to see why the Cubs gave him a two-year deal worth $11.5 million, plus an option for 2028.
Maton's breaking ball run value was in the 90th percentile, his whiff rate in the 98th percentile and hard-hit percentage at 99.
But things don't always go according to plan in the Cubs bullpen. Two years in a row, they had a projected closer get released before the season ended, Hector Neris in '24 and Ryan Pressly in '25.
They'll be more patient with Maton due to his contract, but his season ERA soared to 9.49 after serving up a 3-run eighth inning Sunday against the White Sox.
“I think the biggest thing right now, even from a pitch-calling standpoint, is working around not having my best curveball.” Maton said before Monday's game. “Just kind of making mistakes in sequences and throwing pitches I shouldn't throw. Frankly, I'm not getting away with any mistakes right now.”
This season, Maton's breaking ball run value is bottom of the barrel. He's allowed 2 home runs, a triple and a .350 batting average with the curve. Cubs manager Craig Counsell suggested the solution is improving the curve, not eliminating it.
“When you lack some of that confidence in one of those pitches, it can change more than you realize,” Counsell said. “I think Phil got burned by some off-speed pitches earlier in the season, and it's made him a little gun-shy with some of his best pitches. And we've got to get him back to full confidence in his full repertoire.”
Maton went on the injured list with knee tendinitis in April, but said that hasn’t been an issue.
Base building
A recent Cubs problem returned Sunday. They had White Sox starter Erick Fedde on the ropes early, but scored just 4 runs against him. The Cubs finished the game with 13 runners left on base and 2-for-15 at the plate with runners in scoring position.
“I think the offensive situations we've created have been excellent,” manager Craig Counsell said Monday. “If we can reproduce what we've had the last 46 games in terms of runners we're producing, getting on base, I'm in. If we can do that the rest of the season, we're in good shape.”
As a team, the Cubs ranked 22nd in MLB with a .238 average with runners in scoring position heading into Monday's action, but fourth in runs scored.
Home again
With a 15-game home win streak, and coming off a nine-game road trip, the Cubs had not lost at Wrigley Field in 36 days, since April 11, heading into Monday's action. It's the longest run without a home loss since 2008, per Sarah Langs of MLB Stats. … The Cubs’ 18-5 record at home is the team's best 23-game start since 1907, when they were 19-4.