Chicago Cubs’ pitching situation means they better be right about Edward Cabrera

On Opening Day at Wrigley Field, Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer already understood that the club’s perceived pitching depth would be fleeting.

“Listen, starting today, the texts I get from our medical guys, those are the ones that scare you the most,” Hoyer said. “You’re going to have injuries. Things are going to happen. If you’re not prepared for those things, then it’s a failure.”

Three weeks later, the Cubs are missing the top two starters in their season-opening rotation, Matthew Boyd (strained left biceps) and Cade Horton (season-ending elbow surgery). That attrition weakens a bullpen that is also down two late-inning relievers the club targeted as free agents, Phil Maton (right knee tendinitis) and Hunter Harvey (right triceps inflammation).

In these situations everything is connected.

All this uncertainty emphasizes the potential value and inherent risk associated with Edward Cabrera, a pitcher the Cubs acquired in a big winter trade with the Miami Marlins, knowing that he possesses great talent but comes with an extensive medical history.

“I can’t carry that burden on myself,” Cabrera said through an interpreter. “I simply have to go out there, give it my best and try to keep the team in a good position.”

Availability has been the primary issue for Cabrera throughout his career, a factor the Cubs weighed heavily before executing the deal and giving up a trio of prospects headlined by outfielder Owen Caissie. Long intrigued by his potential, the Cubs had also tried to acquire Cabrera after the 2024 season and at last year’s trade deadline.

Originally signed by the Marlins as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic, Cabrera set career highs last year by making 26 starts and throwing 137⅔ innings. Now 28, he’s still trying to complete his first wire-to-wire season in the majors.

That is a central tension in the modern game, organizations prioritizing max-effort stuff at the expense of durability, and pitchers chasing extra velocity because the financial incentives are enormous.

In Cabrera’s case, the Cubs were comfortable with the trade-off because he’s under club control through the 2028 season. As much as they pride themselves on their Gold Glove defense and a strong game-planning system, they also recognized that Cabrera could provide some missing elements.

Cabrera is a 6-foot-5 power pitcher whose Statcast profile features upper-end velocity, five different pitches and a unique changeup that averages nearly 93 mph.

“His pure stuff is different than anything else we really have,” Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson said. “He’s young and controllable, but also there’s so much more in there. I feel like the combination of our coaching staff and our defense will really elevate his game even more.”

Cabrera quickly won over his new teammates with both his skills and his demeanor. Once the trade was finalized, Jameson Taillon instantly received a positive scouting report from Marlins pitching coach Daniel Moskos, who had worked for the Cubs and predicted Cabrera would fit in well at Wrigley Field.

“He’s cool,” catcher Miguel Amaya said. “He’s the type of (teammate) that is always having a good conversation, making jokes. It’s awesome having that chemistry, since he’s coming from a different team and bringing that to here and having him in our family.”

Acclimating to a big-market team with World Series aspirations has not been an issue thus far. Cabrera did not allow a run in his first two starts (11⅔ innings) — the Cubs won both games — and he put together another competitive outing last weekend during an 11-inning loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates in Wrigleyville.

The Cubs are optimistic Cabrera can control his walk rate and pitch more efficiently.

“He’s got a great arm,” Hoyer said. “You can see the talent every time he goes out there. Hopefully, he can stack good starts on top of each other and realize that you don’t have to strike out everyone with our team. We’re going to catch the ball for him. Hopefully, he gains comfort in that, and that pushes him into the strike zone even more.”

With almost 90% of the 162-game schedule still ahead, Hoyer’s phone will keep pinging. Porter Hodge, who had been a lights-out reliever for the Cubs in 2024, will undergo season-ending surgery on his right elbow, the club announced Wednesday. Jaxon Wiggins, the organization’s top pitching prospect, is on the injured list with Triple-A Iowa, where the pipeline of homegrown pitching talent appears to be stalling.

Still, the Cubs are confident they will figure it out. They won a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies behind Shota Imanaga’s superb performance in Wednesday night’s 11-2 road victory. Boyd could be activated as soon as next week. And while Horton was supposed to be the potential ace, Cabrera has also shown those flashes of dominance.

“When he’s in the zone,” manager Craig Counsell said, “and when he has the full repertoire working, it’s a lot for a hitter to handle.”

The New York Mets will get an up-close look Friday afternoon at the Friendly Confines, where Cabrera will have to be a stabilizing force for a team that is already testing the limits of its depth in mid-April.

“It’s unfortunate, these are good pitchers,” Cabrera said. “They are guys, honestly, that we need. (And) to me, they are stars. (But) in the end, as an individual, I just go out there and do my best.”

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