Tips for planning your small business sales in challenging times

As our first quarter is in its final three weeks for many small businesses, many owners find themselves juggling quarter-ending duties including reviewing taxes, and trying to anticipate what the next nine months might bring.

One of the most valuable exercises during this season is reviewing and if necessary, revising your sales forecast. While it may sound complicated, forecasting is simply the process of using what you know about the past and present to make smarter decisions about the future.

For many entrepreneurs, forecasting feels like a mix of art, science and educated guesswork. That’s because markets shift, customers change habits, and unexpected events appear. Still, a realistic projection provides a powerful road map. It helps guide hiring decisions, marketing investments, inventory purchases and cash-flow planning. Perhaps, just as important, it demonstrates financial discipline and transparency, which are qualities that build trust with lenders, partners and customers.

The process begins by breaking your sales into clear categories. Instead of looking at revenue as one big number, divide it into meaningful pieces like product types, service categories, individual offerings or revenue accounts. This simple step makes forecasting far easier because you can evaluate which areas are growing, which are slowing and where new opportunities might emerge. Just make sure your categories align with your accounting system so you can compare forecasts with actual results throughout the year.

Next, establish a realistic starting point. Last year’s sales during the remaining nine months of the year often provide the best baseline. If your business generated $100,000 in revenue, that figure becomes the foundation for your projection. From there, layer in factors such as expected inflation, pricing adjustments or economic conditions. Tracking those key performance indicators, conversion rates, customer retention and average purchase value can also reveal what truly drives revenue and where improvements might increase sales.

Seasonality is another critical piece. Few businesses experience identical revenue every month. Retailers often surge during the holidays, landscapers thrive in summer, and service firms may see slower periods in winter. By studying historical patterns, you can distribute your annual forecast into quarterly or monthly expectations. Modern analytics tools and AI-driven software can help analyze trends and even model different scenarios, giving business owners a clearer picture of potential outcomes.

Of course, forecasting also requires looking ahead. Are you planning a new marketing campaign, introducing a product line or expanding into a new market? Those initiatives should be reflected in your projections. Smart business owners also prepare multiple versions of their forecast — optimistic, conservative and most-likely scenarios — so they can respond quickly if conditions change.

External forces matter as well. Expiring contracts, pending deals, industry forecasts, regulatory changes or shifts in consumer behavior can all influence demand. Paying attention to these signals helps ensure your projections reflect reality rather than wishful thinking. The goal isn’t perfect accuracy; it’s informed preparation.

Finally, remember that revenue alone does not determine success. Expenses shape profitability. Start by mapping fixed costs such as rent, utilities, insurance and property taxes. Then evaluate variable expenses including inventory, materials, shipping and marketing. Understanding both sides of the equation allows you to forecast not just sales, but actual profit.

Sales forecasting doesn’t require perfection or complex spreadsheets. What it requires is thoughtful attention to the numbers and the story behind them. When small business owners take the time to review past performance, study trends and anticipate change, they position themselves to make better decisions all year long.

A well-built forecast becomes more than a financial document. It becomes a strategic guide for hiring, marketing, pricing and growth. And in uncertain economic times, that clarity can make the difference between simply reacting to the future and actively shaping it.

Forecasting in the end is about confidence and understanding your business well enough to move forward with intention rather than guesswork. That discipline is often what separates resilient companies from those constantly scrambling to catch up today. One common theme to keeping sales strong is great commitment to integrity and customer service.

• Steve J. Bernas is president and CEO of the Better Business Bureau and can be reached at sbernas@chicago.bbb.org.