Considering the ‘why’ and the ‘what’s next’ in Iran war

Why did President Trump decide to launch a war with Iran? Many reasons, it seems.

He did not like the criticism he has received for urging on Iranian protesters only to see them slaughtered without a U.S. response — until now. The comparisons to President Obama and his “red lines,” in particular, seemed to grate on him.

The president was certainly pushed hard by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and reportedly Vice President Vance, seeing the direction things were heading, urged the president to “go big and go fast.” When Israel saw the opportunity to strike the Iranian leadership, President Trump said, “Go.”

The president thought the Iranians were playing for time and not negotiating in good faith and were trying to reconstitute their nuclear program. It was another case of “mess around and find out.”

Militarily it was a good time to strike because Iran is at its weakest in decades. Still, the president claimed Iran was an imminent threat. Those are hard to square.

There might also be a grandiose vision. Does President Trump believe he is the one to reshape the Middle East and bring lasting peace, and that peace runs through Tehran?

Trump is astute in choosing his foils. No one has shed a tear that Nicolás Maduro is in a New York jail, and few will mourn the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenie, who had a great deal of blood on his hands, including much American blood. Under Khamenie’s leadership, terrorism roiled the Middle East for decades, Iran’s people were slaughtered and a country that could have been rich was impoverished.

Trump also has become increasingly comfortable wielding military force. He seems to relish talking about American power. There are nervous leaders in Havana.

What happens now? Iran is fighting back, and American servicemen have been lost. America and Israel are racing to destroy Iran’s capacity to launch missiles and drones before they can cause more death. Still, Iran has other weapons — cyber, terrorism. President Trump was warned about the downsides — American casualties, a spike in energy prices, a drop in markets and a wider war. He was undeterred, perhaps emboldened by Venezuela.

He says this will go on for several more weeks. Maybe, but such declarations can also be leverage.

Most Republicans will back the president in public and shake their heads in private. Most Democrats will push back but be compelled to start each sentence with the words “of course the Ayatollah was an evil man and Iran was a source of terrorism, but …” It is not clear many will listen to the rest of the sentence.

Can Iran’s fragmented opposition rise up and overthrow the government or will they be slaughtered again or perhaps judge that without U.S. boots on the ground, it would be a fool’s errand? The videos of joyful celebration in Iran following the Ayatollah’s death are very real, but it is not clear if there are elements within Iran’s security forces willing to lead a coup.

The historian John Mecham noted that for wartime presidents, character is destiny. President Trump is mercurial and takes things personally. There is nothing to indicate that he cares much about democracy despite what he might say.

Some of the objectives he has set forth (and they seem to change) are doable in an air campaign, such as degrading Iran’s missile and drone arsenals and production facilities. Others — ending its nuclear program or changing the government — are long shots.

Is it possible America could force a change in Iran’s government by, say, swapping the theocracy for a military dictatorship that might only care about its privileged position? Would President Trump decide — as with Venezuela — that that was enough?

• Keith Peterson, of Lake Barrington, served 29 years as a press and cultural officer for the United States Information Agency and Department of State. He was chief editorial writer of the Daily Herald 1984-86. His book “American Dreams: The Story of the Cyprus Fulbright Commission” is available from Amazon.com.