Casino group sees Super Bowl bets jumping to record $1.76 billion

Americans will place a record $1.76 billion in Super Bowl bets with casinos and online sportsbooks, a near 29% increase from last year, according to the American Gaming Association.

The forecast from the trade group representing casinos doesn’t include bets placed through prediction-market companies such as Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket. The association represents operators that are licensed by states. Prediction-market companies are regulated by the federal government.

Investors have been concerned about the impact of prediction markets on traditional sports-betting companies. Shares of DraftKings Inc. and FanDuel-parent Flutter Entertainment Plc, the two largest players in sports betting, have slumped since August as the volume of prediction-market bets has grown.

DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics Inc. have all launched their versions of prediction products. “We do believe prediction markets are having an impact on the sports betting companies,” Jordan Bender, equity research analyst at Citizens, said earlier this month.

Estimates vary for the amount of wagering on the Feb. 8 game. The Sports Betting Alliance, which represents online gambling sites, puts the number at $1.7 billion. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, a market researcher, estimates $1.6 billion, a 10% increase from last year, still a record.

Growth is slowing, according to Chris Krafcik, a managing director at Eilers, because the sports-betting business is maturing and fewer states have legalized wagering. Online sports books have an advantage over prediction markets because they offer more generous promotions and a wider choice of bets, he said.

Prediction-market companies also haven’t signed partnerships with the National Football League, “a key pillar of legitimacy for sports-prediction markets,” Krafcik said.

Charles Gillespie, chief executive officer of Gambling.com Group, a company that directs bettors to online casinos and sportsbooks, said in an interview that prediction markets haven’t cut into his referrals to traditional sports-betting operators. While Gambling.com has a growing business selling data to prediction-market operators, revenue from referrals to those sites is “immaterial” to the company, he said.

Others see the market for prediction-based companies as largely confined to the 11 states that haven’t legalized sports betting.

“I don’t think it really is really affecting the major sportsbooks,” said Dalton Patterson, a sports-betting influencer with 578,000 followers on Instagram. “It’s basically the people in states like California who can’t play on DraftKings.”