O’Donnell: The evolution of a wild-card point spread

OF THE 12 NFL TEAMS PLAYING on this wild-card weekend, the Bears were drawing the largest percentage of betting handle in any of the six head-to-head matches.

That's public confidence.

Still, Green Bay remained a 1½-point favorite as Friday curved toward kickoff.

Go figure.

NOW ABOUT THE EVOLUTION of that CHI-GB point spread, from Jamey Pileggi, risk manager/NFL for Circa Sports in Las Vegas:

“After the end of last Sunday's games, we used computer data to generate a number, which I then shaded slightly toward Green Bay. Our opening post was Packers minus 1½ and that's what went up Sunday night. The (betting) market could then move that number right up until the final hour or so before the game's kickoff.”

As Pileggi expected — especially given the growing national popularity of Ben Johnson's inaugural Bears — the line indeed wavered. By Monday afternoon, Chicago was minus-1½.

BUT THURSDAY MORNING, GREEN BAY again was back to minus-1½.

“We have $10,000 betting limits on that opening number,” Pileggi said. “The limits increase as the week goes on, as the line matures, on up to $100,000, $200,000, whatever a player's profile will allow. We have more 'sharps' than 'recreationalists' betting into the early number.

“We get roughly 3% of total handle on a high-interest game like this Sunday-Monday. Then about 15% more will come in between Tuesday and Friday. The vast majority, 80% or more, gets wagered on game day, in the case of the Bears-Packers, Saturday.”

PILEGGI ALSO SAID that the Soldier Field showdown was all but certain to be the most bet-upon of the weekend's six-game NFL card.

“When all numbers are in, Chicago-Green Bay should account for 20-25% of all NFL money wagered this weekend. A great match-up, in a prime TV slot, featuring two teams with devoted fan bases who already played two very dramatic games in the past month.”

Circa Sports has been “live” in Illinois since the opening of its casino and sports book at American Place in Waukegan two years ago (circasports.com). Corporate principal Derek Stevens has long been a favorite of Las Vegas-oriented sports media.

INTO THE COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF, the Bears were drawing 70% of all bets and 62% of all money wagered on the game line at Circa's assorted outlets.

That was the biggest chunk of all 12 bettables, with the Eagles next in handle (57%; they're minus-5½ vs. visiting SF).

Still, Chicago's status as a home 'dawg lingered toward the last tailgate.

Go figure.

Jim O'Donnell's Sports and Media column appears each week on Sunday and Wednesday. Reach him at jimodonnelldh@yahoo.com. All communications may be considered for publication.