Cubs land Edward Cabrera in trade with Marlins, but can they fix his fastballs?

The Cubs have been shopping for a frontline starting pitcher for what seems like ages and settled to some extent on a player who has that upside but will need some help to get there by acquiring right-hander Edward Cabrera from the Marlins for three prospects.

Cabrera has the arsenal to be a No. 2 starter, at least, but he doesn’t have a great history of health — his 137⅔ innings in 2025 was a career high at any level — and both his four- and two-seamers get hit hard. The Marlins are trading Cabrera off his best year, but with three seasons of club control remaining, and all three of the prospects they’re getting back have some kind of significant question mark.

Cabrera had something of a breakout season in 2025, with career bests in innings, walk rate, FIP and WAR, and there may still be more growth ahead of him given how he got to those results. He has at least two “plus” pitches in his curveball and changeup, with the latter pitch succeeding even though it’s often just a few miles an hour below his fastball velocity, and the slider is at least an above-average weapon for him.

Cabrera’s main issue for years was poor control — well, that and some arm trouble that hasn’t required any surgery to date, including a right elbow sprain late in 2025 — but now his primary problem is that hitters seem to enjoy his four-seamer and sinker far too much, even though he sits 96-98 mph. The four-seamer has some run to it but is extremely flat, lacking the kind of ride to live at the top of the zone if he even had the command to try to pitch up there (which, right now, he doesn’t).

Cabrera’s hard-hit rate, the rate at which hitters put the ball in play against him with exit velocities of 95 mph or harder, ranked in the bottom 10% in MLB last year, and the four-seamer is the biggest reason why: When hitters hit his four-seamer in 2025, they hit it hard 62.8% of the time, which would have been the highest hard-hit rate allowed on four-seamers in all of MLB had he qualified.

The sinker is marginally better, because at least it has a little vertical movement, although it only generated a 44% groundball rate on balls in play in 2025. A pitcher can succeed with mediocre fastballs — yes, I just said a fastball that regularly hits 99 is “mediocre,” what a world we live in — if he has multiple above-average offspeed pitches.

That said, I can’t help but look at everything Cabrera can do right now and think there’s a No. 2 starter in there if the Cubs can help either his four-seamer or sinker play more like an average pitch than they do right now. It’s a risk, as the default assumption has to be that his fastballs are what they are given that he’s 27 and the Marlins have ramped up their pitching development in the last two years, but the reward could be another top-of-the-rotation starter for the Cubs if they can help him.

With Justin Steele’s return still TBD, Shota Imanaga coming back off a brutal finish to his 2025 season and Cade Horton very likely to see some regression in his second year, even a repeat of Cabrera’s 2025 season would help the Cubs significantly.

Outfielder Owen Caissie, my No. 5 Cubs prospect at the time of this trade, has “plus-plus” power and has posted high exit velocities and hard-hit rates throughout the minors, including a hard-hit rate in Triple-A last year of 53.4%. He strikes out way too often, however, and it’s not just a matter of improving his swing decisions or ball/strike recognition. He also struggled to make contact or hit for much power against lefties last year, consistent with the bulk of his minor-league career, and he might be a platoon player rather than an everyday guy.

Caissie has improved his defense in the outfield from unplayable when he was drafted to grade-45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with a solid average arm, and he’s also worked to boost his running speed underway to the point where he’s average now. He fits the mold of Kyle Stowers, another low-contact power hitter with platoon issues who had a breakout year for the Marlins last year even while striking out in 27% of his plate appearances.

Shortstop Cristian Hernandez signed with the Cubs in January 2021 for $3 million, at the time one of the largest bonuses they’d ever given on the international free-agent side, but after a strong debut in the DSL that summer he hasn’t performed close to expectations. He’s very underdeveloped physically for a now 22-year-old and should still see some significant growth and further strength gains going forward, so his high contact rates the last two years have produced a lot of weaker contact, with his 47.1% groundball rate this past year in High-A actually his lowest in any full-season stint. I think the Marlins bought low here, and that Hernandez is a breakout candidate for 2026 — even more so now that he’s not going to have to split time with Jeferson Rojas at shortstop.

Edgardo De Leon is a lottery ticket on high exit velocities, which he produces with an all-out swing that generates bat speed by opening his front hip very early, forcing his hands (and his torso) to catch up, leaving him vulnerable to velocity and probably to stuff spinning away from him.

He’s a third baseman now who won’t stick there but has a “plus” arm and could try right field rather than just going to first base. He hit .276/.353/.500 in the Arizona Complex League last year as an 18-year-old with a 28.8% strikeout rate, and the jump from the ACL to Low-A might be a lot to ask of him given his extant problems with contact.

Given the years of control remaining before Cabrera hits free agency, I would have expected a higher return in prospects — but I don’t see anyone’s medicals and can only make educated guesses about what a pitcher’s injury history might indicate about his future durability. I could also see Caissie having a Stowers-like year with the Marlins, who are in a position to just let him play even if he’s striking out 30% of the time, and Hernandez surprising people if and when he fills out.

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