Erin strengthens into the first Atlantic hurricane of the year

Erin became the first Atlantic hurricane of the year on Friday morning as it churned toward Caribbean islands.

The storm had winds of 75 mph by 11 a.m. Eastern, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was forecast to bring potential for flooding rains to parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend.

Earlier Friday, the Hurricane Center increased predictions of Erin’s peak intensity, with a Category 4 storm now forecast on Monday. Still, the system remains on a track to avoid landfall.

As of midday Friday, Erin was about 460 miles east of Leeward Islands. The storm is set to track north of the Caribbean Islands into early next week but is set to be close enough for some impacts, including heavy rain and localized flooding, tropical storm-force winds and dangerous sea conditions.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius and St. Martin — islands where the weather will deteriorate starting Friday night.

Erin is forecast to track east of the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas on Monday while taking an important turn to the north — a turn that will probably keep the storm in the open ocean east of the United States and west of Bermuda next week. Still, dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along the Eastern Seaboard.

Erin may pass near or south of Newfoundland and Labrador late next week.

Erin’s impacts

Erin will lash parts of the northern Caribbean with heavy rain, strong winds and hazardous sea conditions into early next week.

Here’s a regional overview:

Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola

The region will be hit by Erin’s outer rain, thunderstorm and wind bands through the weekend, with rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and localized amounts up to 6 inches.

“This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides,” the Hurricane Center wrote.

Because terrain across the islands is varied, impacts won’t be uniform. Flooding downpours may strike one community but leave others nearby largely untouched.

Rip currents and waves higher than 6 feet, driven by blustery winds, will slam north- and east-facing coasts, causing dangerous conditions near beaches.

Places that will feel these effects include San Juan and Arecibo, Puerto Rico; and Punta Cana and Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic.

Turks and Caicos, Bahamas

Although the center of Erin will pass offshore, the storm’s outer rain and wind bands may swipe portions of the Turks and Caicos and eastern Bahamas from Monday to Wednesday. Dangerous sea swells and rip currents are also likely.

United States

The latest forecasts continue to suggest Erin will probably pass offshore next week, though there are still some questions as to how far offshore — and how close to North Carolina’s Outer Banks — it will be.

While direct impacts are unlikely, the East Coast isn’t out of the woods: Dangerous rip currents, big waves and rough seas are likely from Florida to Maine next week.

Bermuda

Erin will probably pass west of Bermuda next Wednesday.

The island is likely to be on the right side of a large and dangerous hurricane — the side of the storm with the strongest winds, waves and rain.

Heavy rain, wind and very large seas could hit the island. Residents and travelers should keep a close eye on the situation.

Erin’s strength

A combination of very warm ocean waters, abundant moisture and relaxed winds will create an environment ripe for Erin’s intensification in the days ahead.

Erin is forecast to reach Category 4 strength by Monday, with the Hurricane Center predicting maximum sustained winds of 138 mph.

The storm is predicted to grow in size, have an expanding wind field, and develop a large eye as it moves north.

What’s next after Erin

The Hurricane Center is also monitoring a disturbance moving toward South Texas on Friday.

The system will bring scattered downpours from Brownsville to Houston, with a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding in the Rio Grande Valley.

Forecast developments should be monitored closely, particularly because some of the rain could reach the Texas Hill Country late Friday and overnight — the area that suffered from devastating floods on July 4.

Another wave of unsettled weather may reach the Caribbean later next week, but whether it turns into a named storm is uncertain.

The next storm names after Erin are Fernand, Gabrielle and Humberto.