The facts on another Blackhawks draft lottery

The Blackhawks didn’t exactly have the season they hoped for. But what is done is done, and Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson probably isn’t too upset about having another high pick to add to his collection of prospects.

Come Monday’s NHL Draft Lottery, the Blackhawks will discover whether they’ll have the first, second, third or fourth selection in June’s draft.

Here’s everything you need to know heading into the lottery.

The odds

The Blackhawks finished 31st in the standings out of the NHL’s 32 teams, which means they can move as high as No. 1 in the lottery and low as No. 4. They have a 13.5% chance at winning the lottery, a 14.1% chance at the second pick, a 30.7% chance at the third pick and a 41.7% chance at the No. 4 pick. Have a spin or 1,000 in Tankathon’s draft lottery simulator as you wait for the real lottery.

The fine print

What if the Blackhawks win the lottery? For one, the Blackhawks wouldn’t be allowed to “win” the lottery again until the 2027 one because of the league’s rule that no team can move up to No. 1 more than twice in five years.

There are a couple of notes on that.

It’s important to understand that winning a lottery means moving up in the draft from your starting position. The Blackhawks moved up from the third pick (after finishing 30th in the regular season) to the first pick in 2023, when they took Connor Bedard. But a team could finish in 32nd place and end up with the first pick, and it wouldn’t be considered winning the lottery because it didn’t advance from its standings position. So, the Blackhawks could move up to the first pick this year and still pick first next year. But that would be alarming for Davidson because a last-place finish would raise questions about where the organization is headed.

Who would Blackhawks take at No. 1?

As for which player to draft at No. 1, that would likely create some interesting conversations within Chicago’s hockey operations department.

Defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the consensus best player in the 2025 draft. But the Blackhawks are already loaded up on defense after using a lot of early-round draft picks on the position under Davidson. They drafted Artyom Levshunov with the No. 2 pick last year, Kevin Korchinski with the No. 7 pick in 2022 and Sam Rinzel with the No. 25 pick in 2022.

In addition, the Blackhawks have 24-year-old Alex Vlasic, who signed a six-year extension before last season; 22-year-old Wyatt Kaiser, who took a step in his game last season; and several other young defensemen, including Ethan Del Mastro, Nolan Allan and Louis Crevier, who have played some NHL games.

Considering that, Davidson was asked recently about potentially drafting another defenseman so high.

“Would we consider it?” Davidson said. “Yeah, we would consider it. … We’re not going to close off any avenue there, right? I think the way I view the draft, too, is not — yeah, it is team building, of course — but you’ve got one day to acquire the best talent out of a draft. You’ve got one day. You’ve got the rest of the time to manipulate a roster or a depth chart or an organizational strength or a weakness, right? And so our job in the draft is to acquire talent. And we’re not going to close off. We’re not going to go position-of-need, necessarily.

“We’ve always gone best player available in our minds and what we think could impact the organization the most, and we’ll continue to do that and deal with an overload of strength. … I’m not closed off to taking a forward or a defenseman.”

That may be true, but drafting Schaefer would complicate Davidson’s rebuild.

Maybe it means the Blackhawks would eventually trade Schaefer or another defenseman. However, they wouldn’t want to move on from any of their young defensemen yet, especially after devoting so many resources to their development. Korchinski hasn’t been what the Blackhawks hoped for yet, but it’s still so early in his development, and his value wouldn’t be much right now.

You normally play only one defenseman on the top power play, you usually don’t want to devote too high a percentage of your salary cap space to your defensemen, and you also have to be careful about exposing yourself to possible offer sheets with so many young players on your roster. If Levshunov, Korchinski and Rinzel hit, Kaiser continues to develop as he has been, Vlasic keeps on his trajectory, and one of those young defensemen pans out, the Blackhawks don’t need Schaefer. With roster construction, having an excess of elite defensemen isn’t the same as having an excess of forwards.

The Blackhawks could take the best forward available with the top pick. Some experts believe center Michael Misa isn’t that far from Schaefer’s upside. Misa was impressive in the OHL this season, and most draft experts have him as the top forward in the draft. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler has Schaefer and Misa as Tier 1 players.

Could the Blackhawks trade the No. 1 pick?

It’s possible. Davidson has already said he’s open to moving his first pick this year. It is rare to trade the No. 1 pick before it’s made. It hasn’t happened since 2003, when the Pittsburgh Penguins acquired the No. 1 pick from the Florida Panthers and drafted Marc-André Fleury.

There’s a calculator on PuckPedia you can play with to gauge the value of draft picks, and, according to it, the value of the No. 1 pick is about the same as the No. 2 and No. 13 picks combined. In other words, it would take a lot for the Blackhawks to get equal value. Unless the Blackhawks get a proven NHL player in exchange, they probably won’t want to move too far from a top-six selection. Wheeler has six players in his first two tiers, and The Athletic’s Corey Pronman has five players in those tiers.

What if the Blackhawks draft second?

Misa would be the easy selection if he’s there. If Misa goes first and Schaefer is available, the Blackhawks will have the same above considerations at No. 2.

Misa would complement what the Blackhawks already have. He’s 6-foot-1 and 184 pounds. He skates well, is smart and has vision. He can create for others (fourth in the OHL in assists) and score (second to Nick Lardis in goals with 62).

Pronman wrote of Misa: “He projects as a star No. 1 center in the NHL that you can build a winning team around.”

If you add Misa to a forward pool of Bedard, Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, Sacha Boisvert, Marek Vanacker, Lardis, Ryan Greene and Colton Dach as potential top-six forwards — there might even be a few more from the last few drafts — the Blackhawks would like where they’re headed. The Blackhawks have to be happy with their drafts under director of amateur scouting Mike Doneghey.

What if the Blackhawks draft third?

Schaefer and Misa are most draft experts’ top two players in the draft. After that, there is a difference in opinion. James Hagens, Porter Martone, Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers are in the next group of players and are often ranked in different orders.

Hagens, who is 5-11 and 178 pounds, might be a little too similar to what the Blackhawks already have in their forward pool. The Blackhawks know they probably need some bigger players alongside Bedard, Moore, Nazar, Lardis and Kantserov. Aside from Hagens, those other forward prospects are bigger. Martone is 6-2 and 208 pounds, Frondell is 6-1 and 198 pounds and Desnoyers is 6-2 and 178 pounds.

If I had to choose for the Blackhawks at No. 3 and Misa and Schaefer were off the board, my educated guess is Frondell.

Marcus Krüger recently shared his thoughts on Frondell after playing the season with him in Sweden.

“I think he’s like the whole package,” Krüger said. “He’s big, he can he can skate, he can handle the puck. All that, but also he’s curious. He asks stuff, he tries stuff. So, yeah, he’s not going to play with me for very long here. You’re going to get a taste of him here.”

What if the Blackhawks draft fourth?

After Misa and Frondell, it probably comes down to Desnoyers and Martone.

Wheeler wrote of Martone: “Martone’s got a pro game and frame. He battles, goes to the net, finishes his checks and will drop the gloves. He handles the puck smoothly for his size and can be quite noticeable in possession when he’s playing with confidence and intention. I’ve seen him make individual skill plays, cleanly beat goalies from midrange with his strong shot and release and execute low-to-high plays from below the goal line or off the cycle.”

Pronman wrote on Desnoyers: “He checks every box for what you want in an NHL center. He’s tall and fast and makes a lot happen with and without the puck. Desnoyers displays excellent skill and playmaking ability. He creates offense on the move, off the perimeter and at the net. He has great creativity as a playmaker, while also being a detailed two-way player.”

What else to know

The Blackhawks also will have the Toronto Maple Leafs’ draft pick in the first round.

The Blackhawks also have two second-round picks and a third-round pick. The third-round pick is their own that they re-acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes as part of the Taylor Hall trade.

Overall, the Blackhawks will have five picks in the draft’s first 65 selections. They had four picks in the first 67 selections last year, six in the first 66 selections in 2023 and six in the first 66 in 2022.

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