O’Donnell: Dishing Kentucky Derby advice
MANY SERIOUS THOROUGHBRED RACING HANDICAPPERS treat a Kentucky Derby like a NASCAR driver would face Thanksgiving Eve traffic into the downstairs “Arrivals” lanes at O'Hare.
Even for the most nimble, it can be hard to navigate. But the goal is to get through it and save main steam for easier jams.
Some skip it entirely. Others make pie-in-the-sky action bets and hope for bedlam on the final tote board.
SAID GARY DUCH, NOW RETIRED after a long run as racing secretary at Southwest suburban Hawthorne Race Course and an assistant at Arlington Park:
“I would rather bet a sixth race on the turf at Parx (a racino near Philadelphia) than try to handicap a Kentucky Derby. There are far too many variables. Up to 20 horses, the possibility of trouble at every step, 3-year-olds trying a mile-and-a-quarter for the first time at Churchill Downs.
“Too, too much. I say relatively small action wagers or pull a number out of a hat. Take shots. See if it's to be your lucky day.”
WHATEVER THE SELECTION METHOD, the 151st Run for the Roses is set to go Saturday (Post time 5:57 p.m.; NBC main network coverage — featuring Jerry Bailey along with sidekicks Randy Moss and Mike Tirico — starts at 1:30 p.m.).
A full field of 20 is probable. Morning-line favorite is Michael McCarthy's Journalism (No. 8, 3-1). A colt named Publisher (No. 13, 20-1) is also in.
If the lords of Central Avenue in Louisville could have found a 3-year-old named “New Revenue Streams,” they would have presented the possibility of a teasing contemporary newspaper industry trifecta.
ABOUT THOSE HIGH-PIE WIN MUTUELS:
The last six Kentucky Derbies (2019-24) have produced an average lead payout of $68.58. That's “Let It Ride” level — only for people having a very good day.
The previous five (2014-18)?
A comparatively chintzy $8.12. That's why long-term chalk players wind up subsisting on bananas, frozen pizzas and Old Style beer.
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“WISE GUY HORSES” ALWAYS ABOUND in the final days before the Derby.
The upcoming hoof 'n go is no exception. And one of the wisest comes from the stable of six-time garland champ Bob Baffert.
The white-maned southwesterner is back after a three-year ban by management of Churchill Downs. That sanction came after his Medina Spirit won the 2021 Derby but days later was found to be tinged by a banned substance.
FOR THAT BRIEF INTERIM, Baffert had the most training wins in Derby history (7). He vehemently denied any knowledge of the no-no drug. But CDI chair Bunker Bill Carstanjen held Baffert's West Coast feet to an unprecedented fire.
Medina Spirit was DQed and Brad Cox's Mandaloun was declared the winner.
Baffert simmered in an increasingly humbling silence. Then, last July, CDI lifted the exclusion. He then entered the Derby sequence in the fall with six prime possibles.
TWO SURVIVED AND ARE SCHEDULED to start this weekend. The dreaded No. 1 post should compromise Citizen Bull (20-1). But three stalls over, Rodriguez (No. 4, 12-1) looms large.
The colt fits the three prime criteria of the fabled ODage Derby system. Mike Smith — age 59 — will try to become the oldest jockey ever to win the classic (surpassing Bill Shoemaker, then 54, astride Ferdinand in 1986).
Smith and Rodriguez have to get out and not look back.
Just like Baffert — now 72 — is trying to do with the Derby segment of his Hall of Fame career.
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ARLINGTON PARK SENTIMENTALISTS have to dig deep to find a rooting peg in Saturday's roller derby. But Sandman (No. 17, 6-1) comes closest to filling the bill.
The stout closer was bred by the late Bob Lothenbach, a Minnesota-based printing magnate who died unexpectedly in November 2023 at age 64.
Lothenbach emerged as a top-tier owner in 2000, sharing the AP championship with Frank Calabrese. His primary Chicago trainer was Chris Block, still a force on the diminished state circuit and president of the Illinois Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association.
SANDMAN IS A TAPIT COLT out of Distorted Music. The lightly raced broodmare was a Block charge who won an entry-level allowance at AP in September 2014 and was retired three races later. She has since distinguished herself as one of the most in-demand breeding mates in the game.
Said Block: “Sandman would have been in my stable. Bob's dream was always to get to a Kentucky Derby and now here he is. Mark Casse has done a great job with the colt. Bob's children elected to go through a dispersal sale a few months after he died, so that's why the change in ownership and trainer.
“His brothers will be at Churchill Saturday, which I think is fantastic. I don't think Sandman is near his ceiling yet. If he gets some pace and catches a break or two, the Derby could be a great tribute to all that Bob meant to the industry.”
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AND FOR KEENEST DERBY DAY SPECULATORS looking for a spot to get their bankrolls running:
Two years ago, the crafty Larry “High Strike” Rivelli had a career day on the first Saturday in May at CD. His Nobals (38-1) — “no-bells” to the more dainty — won the $500,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint. A few hours later, Two Phil's got caught in the closing strides of the Derby.
Rivelli and principal owner Vinnie Foglia did not deny that they made the trip back to the Northwest suburbs inside of a Brink's truck.
THIS TIME AROUND, Nobals (No. 3, 5-1) is back in the Turf Sprint, again under jockey Gerardo Corrales. Stable mate One Timer (No. 4, 10-1) is next out in the starting gate.
Will front-end lightning strike again?
“Hey, why not?” said Rivelli, a Crystal Lake South grad ('89). “He's 2-for-2 on the grass at Churchill and training great. We've got a good post so we hopefully get a clean getaway.”
The Turf Sprint is scheduled as Race 7 on the 14-race CD card. Approximate post time is 1:37 p.m.
Jim O'Donnell's Sports and Media column appears each week on Sunday and Wednesday. Reach him at jimodonnelldh@yahoo.com. All communications may be considered for publication.