A Brutalistic battle: ‘Anora’ and ‘The Brutalist’ vie for top honors in tight, intense Oscars race

Let’s start with the easiest category to predict when the 97th Academy Awards are announced starting at 6 p.m. Sunday, March 2, at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles.

Zoe Saldaña will easily smoke her competition for the Supporting Actress Oscar. She has a key advantage.

She’s up against four actresses — Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) and Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — each nominated for a smaller role with fewer words and less screentime than Saldaña enjoyed.

That’s because Saldaña plays not a supporting character, but the lead in “Emilia Pérez,” a noiry musical about a Mexican attorney (Saldaña) who helps a cartel boss (Karla Sofía Gascón) secretly change his gender so he can start a new life.

Saldaña opens the movie, well before Gascón even appears, and sticks around to the end of the film, well after Gascón exits.

So why is Gascón nominated for Best Actress and Saldaña nominated for Supporting Actress?

Saldaña’s win is only one of several “can’t lose” nominees this year. Here are my predicted winners.

Can’t lose

Cinematography: “The Brutalist” (Oscar voters prefer serious)

Original Score: “The Brutalist”

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin as a bombastically unfiltered young man on a tour of Europe with his cousin in “A Real Pain.” (I contend that Jeremy Strong’s performance as Donald Trump’s mentor, Roy Cohn — a Molotov cocktail of acidic charisma — in “The Apprentice” ranks as the strongest nominee.)

Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña as a spunky, singing, dancing attorney in “Emilia Pérez” (although of the four supporting performers, Ariana Grande should be the most “Popular”).

Confident guesses

Actor: Adrien Brody as an embittered immigrant and architectural genius in “The Brutalist.” (Wait! The Screen Actors Guild awarded Timothée Chalamet best actor for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” Is this a forecast or a fluke?)

Actress: Demi Moore as an aging celebrity willing to do whatever it takes to hold on to her youth in “The Substance.”

Animated Feature Film: “The Wild Robot” (Sorry, Pixar. “Inside Out 2” can’t replicate the original’s inventive freshness.)

Director: Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist” (Wait! The Directors Guild of America voted Sean Baker best director for “Anora,” an indicator of how Academy members might vote.)

Production Design: “Wicked”

Writing (Original Screenplay): “A Real Pain” (Wait! The Writers Guild of America voted “Anora” as best screenplay, another indicator of how Academy members might vote.)

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): “Conclave”

Costume Design: “Wicked”

Makeup and Hairstyling: “Wicked” (if not, “The Substance” will win)

International Feature Film: France’s “Emilia Pérez” (if not, then “I’m Still Here” has a chance)

Sound: “Dune 2”

Visual Effects: “Dune 2”

Music (Original Song): “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (if not, then “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight,” with music and lyrics by Diane Warren, has a chance)

Documentary Feature Film: “No Other Land” (if not, then “Porcelain War” wins)

Film Editing: “Conclave”

Too close to call

Best Picture: Will Oscar voters go for the bleak and original “The Brutalist” or the romantically fun and quirky original “Anora”? The Producers Guild of America and the Critics Choice awarded “Anora” best picture, fairly strong indicators of how Academy members might vote. I think Academy voters are likely to replicate the 2017 Oscars and split the difference between Director and Picture, so I’m going with “Anora.”

Live Action Short Film: “Anuja” (if not, then “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”)

Animated Short Film: “Magic Candies” (if not, then “Wander to Wonder”)

Documentary Short Film: “I Am Ready, Warden”

• • •

97th Oscars

6 p.m. Sunday, March 2, on ABC and streaming live on Hulu. Or stream it on Hulu Live TV, YouTubeTV, AT&T TV and FuboTV.