Is Blue Jays-Guerrero impasse a warning to Cubs or an opportunity?

The Cubs wouldn't have traded for Kyle Tucker if they didn't plan on re-signing him, that's probably a safe assumption.

The Yankees expected to re-sign Juan Soto too, but he hopped on the Bronx-Queens Expressway and joined the Mets in free agency.

Nothing is certain in today's era of extreme salary inflation in MLB, which is why last week's news out of Toronto could be a warning to the Cubs.

Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not come to terms on a contract extension before his self-imposed deadline. Unless there's a change of heart, Guerrero will either hit free agency after the season or be traded before the deadline.

This all happened a few months after Guerrero reportedly said Toronto's offer of $340 million was not even close to what he was looking for.

Can't really blame players for hitting the open market. The chances of the Cubs getting an extension done with Tucker during the season are slim. That's all thanks to contracts given to Soto and Shohei Ohtani the past two years, which were worth $765 million and $700 million, respectively, in total value.

This all begs the question, how high will the bidding go for Tucker and what is the Cubs' ceiling? Needless to say, it would be extremely frustrating for the fan base if Tucker has a good year and doesn't return, while Wrigley Field is packed all summer.

Here's another way to look at it: Maybe Guerrero's impasse is an opportunity for the Cubs. They've tried stacking some value contracts and missed the playoffs the past two years. Why not target Guerrero and create a powerful offensive duo that could anchor the lineup for the next decade?

Since 2021, Tucker and Guerrero rank Nos. 8 and 9 in OPS, right behind the Dodgers duo of Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts at 6-7. Big bats have been winning World Series in recent years, so this would give the Cubs a chance to compete.

In theory, this could be workable with a Ricketts family payroll. The Cubs just have to decide Tucker and Guerrero are worth $40-plus million for the next 10 years or so. They could maybe offer Seiya Suzuki in a trade, move on from Ian Happ after next year, then Dansby Swanson is the only other big contract among position players. Maybe Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara platoon in left-field, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, then some combination of Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw, James Triantos or whoever else at second and third base.

This is basically the plan that helped the Red Sox win four World Series titles in 15 years — find a couple anchors (mainly David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia), then fill in the rest with lower-cost veterans or young guys.

It's certainly possible the Cubs could pull this off, but it would also carry a huge risk. Failing to sign both free agents would be a disaster. If they think Guerrero could be a match, maybe it's better to wait until he becomes a free agent.

At the moment, the Cubs rank 11th in MLB payroll at $186 million, according to spotrac.com. That's lower than they should be, but maybe that's to stay ready for bigger moves in the future.