Time for Ben Carson to run a real race
Ben Carson declared his presidential candidacy in Detroit two weeks ago. Not a minute too soon.
The retired neurosurgeon and conservative star formed a presidential exploratory committee on March 3. Since then, he's been traveling around the country in what might be called a nonstrategic way — making paid speeches that he had long-standing commitments to give, appearing at events for his Carson Scholars Fund (which awards money to promising students around the country) and, in other ways, not directing any particular focus on the key early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
At the same time, Carson has been absent from some important party gatherings. For example, Carson did not attend the GOP summit in New Hampshire a couple of weeks ago that featured a huge field — almost every serious (and nonserious) 2016 candidate. Nor did Carson go to Iowa last weekend for a big social conservative gathering that showcased a large number of hopefuls.
As Carson traveled non-politically, he slid down polls of the GOP race. Since the beginning of March, Carson has slipped from 12.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls — nearly in the top tier of candidates — to less than half that, 5.8 percent.
In a new Fox News poll, Carson dropped five points in just three weeks — from being the choice of 11 percent of Republicans surveyed at the end of March to 6 percent in mid-April. It was the biggest drop of any Republican candidate in that period.
In addition to a loss of support, most people still don't know who Carson is. They don't know anything good about him, and they don't know anything bad about him.
For example, when Fox asked respondents whether Carson is “honest and trustworthy,” 43 percent said they didn't know — the highest of any Republican candidate. (For the record, 32 percent said Carson is honest and trustworthy, while 25 percent said he is not.) Carson also fares poorly in other attribute measurements — Is he a good leader? Does he care about people like you? — because most Americans simply don't have a clue about him.
Carson aides dismiss such concerns. “Polls go up and down,” notes political committee spokeswoman Deana Bass. “Right now, as we're in the exploratory phase, Dr. Carson has been focused on listening to people in determining whether he is going to run or not.”
Aides say Carson is doing well on social media and in various outreach efforts. After Carson announced the exploratory committee, according to Mike Murray, a senior adviser for fundraising and grass-roots efforts, the would-be campaign raised $2.1 million from a little more than 30,000 donors, with the average contribution between $50-60. In April, the campaign added another 25,000 donors. “It's been tremendous,” Murray said.
On his committee's website, Carson has been asking conveniently leading questions designed to offer him encouragement to run. Such as: “Some people say non-politicians shouldn't be elected because they lack 'experience.' Which in your estimation is a more important quality for a president: Having a career in Washington politics or having solid values and character?” Carson's committee says people “overwhelmingly” choose solid values and character.
Carson made his announcement in Detroit. It's a natural choice, since it is not just Carson's hometown, but also a good political choice because some conservatives see the city, mired in bankruptcy and general, long-running decline, as a laboratory for new policies that could reverse its fortunes. Carson could direct special attention to the city's problems.
After the rollout, Carson also has the chance to bring new attention to his fledgling campaign that could stop his slide in the polls. “It's safe to say that all of the declared candidates so far have seen pops around their announcement,” notes Murray. “We see a great opportunity as Ben starts to define his message and positions on issues.”
Whatever Carson does, it will stand out from the rest of the field. Calling his approach to the 2016 race “unorthodox” would be an understatement. Carson speeches, even in a political setting, can seem more like TED talks on the values that brought him success in the decidedly nonpolitical field of brain surgery. At the same time, Carson has deflected policy questions by saying he is not yet a candidate and is still studying the issues.
That ends soon. If he runs, Carson will have to get into politics in a big way. No more putting off questions. Carson may run an unconventional campaign, but it will still have to be a campaign. And it has to start very soon.
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