Poles may vote for change Sunday

WARSAW -- Poles vote on Sunday in a snap parliamentary election that could cost the ruling Kaczynski twins their hold on government in the European Union's biggest former communist country.

Opinion polls suggest a centre-right opposition party might do best in the vote, with plans to speed up economic reform, pull troops out of Iraq and rebuild relations with EU allies that have suffered under the strongly nationalist brothers.

But the race could still be close.

Polls before campaigning ended on Friday put the opposition Civic Platform between 4 and 17 points ahead of the conservative ruling Law and Justice Party. They gave the opposition party up to 47 percent support.

The 58-year-old Kaczynskis, Prime Minister Jaroslaw and President Lech, have run the country of 38 million during two years of growing prosperity but constant political turbulence.

The last coalition government collapsed in September amid infighting over a corruption investigation, prompting the prime minister to push for a parliamentary election two years early. The president does not face an election until 2010.

Their drive to root out what they call a corrupt post-communist elite has been at the heart of the Kaczynskis' campaign. Rivals accuse them of exploiting the fight against graft to smear opponents.

The Kaczynskis are suspicious of old foes Germany and Russia and Poland's relations with its neighbors have become much more difficult.

Some 30 million Poles are eligible to vote. Voting starts at 6 a.m. (0400 GMT) and ends at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT). At stake are 460 seats in the lower house of parliament and 100 Senate seats.

The power base of their socially conservative Law and Justice party is among older Poles, devout Catholics and people in rural areas who feel left out by the changes since the end of communism.

The opposition Civic Platform can count on greater support in booming cities and among the young.

An estimated 2 million Poles have left for western Europe since EU membership in 2004. They are seen as more natural supporters of the opposition, but only 175,000 have registered to vote.

Turnout could be crucial. Only 40 percent voted in the 2005 election and that was seen as having helped the Kaczynskis. Younger voters are less likely to take part.

Financial markets are betting on victory for the Civic Platform. Expectations that it will win, and accelerate Poland's moves to adopt the euro, have helped lift the zloty currency to its highest for over five years.

No party is likely to win outright, however, meaning that parties will have to form a coalition after the election.

The Civic Platform is seen by analysts as having a better chance at that because the Kaczynskis have alienated many potential allies. If opposition parties won three fifths of the lower house's seats they would also be able to nullify the president's power to veto legislation.