It's no longer 'Stay the course'

WASHINGTON -- President Bush's senior advisers on Iraq have recommended he stand by his current war strategy, and he is unlikely to order more than a symbolic cut in troops before the end of the year, administration officials told The Associated Press Tuesday.

The recommendations from the military commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker come despite independent government findings Tuesday that Baghdad has not met most of the political, military and economic markers set by Congress.

Bush appears set on maintaining the central elements of the policy he announced in January, one senior administration official said after discussions with participants in Bush's briefings during his surprise visit to an air base in Iraq on Monday.

Although the addition of 30,000 troops and the focus on increasing security in Baghdad would not be permanent, Bush is inclined to give it more time in hopes of extending military gains in Baghdad and the formerly restive Anbar province, officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity to describe decisions coming as part of the White House report on Iraq due to Congress next week.

The plan they described is fraught with political risk. Republican leaders on Tuesday suggested the GOP may be willing to support keeping troops in the region through spring. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told reporters he would like to ensure a long-term U.S. presence in the Mideast to fight al-Qaida and deter aggression from Iran.

"And I hope that this reaction to Iraq and the highly politicized nature of dealing with Iraq this year doesn't end up in a situation where we just bring all the troops back home and thereby expose us, once again, to the kind of attacks we've had here in the homeland or on American facilities," said McConnell.

With Monday's back-to-back review sessions in Iraq, Bush has now heard from all the military chiefs, diplomats and other advisers he planned to consult before making a widely anticipated report to Congress by Sept. 15. Petraeus and Crocker are to testify before Congress on their recommendations next week.

The United States would be hard-pressed to maintain the current level of 130,000 troops in Iraq indefinitely, but Bush is not expected to order more than a slight cut before the end of the year, officials said.

Bush himself suggested that modest troop cuts may be possible if military successes continue, but he gave no timeline or specific numbers. Options beyond a symbolic cut this year include cutting the tour of duty for troops in Iraq from 15 months back to the traditional 12 months, one official said. If adopted, that change would not come before the spring.

A Pentagon official said Petraeus has not specifically recommended trimming tours by three months. Bush's troop increase will end by default in April or May, when one of the added brigades is slated to leave, unless Bush makes other changes to hold the number steady.

Republican support could hinge on Petraeus' testimony next week. If he can convince lawmakers that the security gains won in recent months are substantial and point toward a bigger trend, GOP members might be willing to hold out until next spring. They also might be persuaded if Bush promises some small troop drawdowns by the end of the year, as was suggested to the White House by Sen. John Warner of Virginia, an influential Republican on security matters.

"It is critical that we continue working with the Iraqis to solidify the gains that have been made since the inception of the surge, and our troops are on track to do just that," House GOP leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Tuesday.

Whether GOP rank-and-file lawmakers -- many of whom face tough elections next year -- stand by Bush remains to be seen and will be crucial in staving off Democratic legislation setting a deadline for troop withdrawals. Democrats hold a razor-thin majority in the Senate and have been unable to pass veto-proof bills forcing Bush to pull out troops.

Also Tuesday, the Government Accountability Office, Congress' investigative and auditing arm, reported that Iraq has failed to meet 11 of its 18 political and security goals.

The study was slightly more upbeat than initially planned. After receiving substantial resistance from the White House, the GAO determined that four benchmarks -- instead of two -- had been partially met.

But the GAO stuck with its original contention that only three goals out of the 18 had been fully achieved. The goals met include establishing joint security stations in Baghdad, ensuring minority rights in the Iraqi legislature and creating support committees for the Baghdad security plan.

The congressional auditors paint a bleaker picture of progress in Iraq than offered by Bush in July, and their report comes at a critical time in the debate over the war.

Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., returning from a weekend trip to Iraq, said Tuesday he now supports a colleague's plan calling for bringing back some troops by the end of the year to send a message to the Iraqi government.

Coleman said he was impressed that U.S. forces have made parts of Iraq more secure. But he said he wasn't impressed by the government of Iraq, and supported the plan by Sen. John Warner, R-Va., to bring back 5,000 troops by the end of the end of the year.

"I think the unmistakable message has to be sent to the Shiite leadership that there is no blank check for Iraq," Coleman told reporters on a conference call.

Coleman faces a tough re-election next year, and his Democratic opponents have been criticizing him for opposing withdrawing troops from Iraq.

Democrats said the GAO report showed that Bush's decision to send more troops to Iraq was failing because Baghdad was not making the political progress needed to tamp down sectarian violence.

"No matter what spin we may hear in the coming days, this independent assessment is a failing grade for a policy that simply isn't working," said Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.

The report does not make any substantial policy recommendations, but says future administration reports "would be more useful to the Congress" if they provided more detailed information.

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Associated Press writers Anne Flaherty and Lolita C. Baldor contributed to this report.