Shoppers expecting big Black Friday deals

Rita Kelley and her mom plan to hit the malls early Friday morning in what has become a post-turkey tradition for avid shoppers. But this year, they and thousands of other suburban shoppers expect to find even deeper discounts than ever.

At the crack of dawn, the women plan to be on the front lines of Black Friday as they shop at Stratford Square in Bloomingdale, an outlet mall and maybe Toys 'R' Us, in search of good deals.

"Because of the economy, they're going to have to offer better deals," said Kelley of Cary.

Retail analysts agree deep discounts should be plentiful to lure in shoppers on Black Friday - so called because it's the day that retailers can turn a profit, or go in the black, for the year.

"Expect to see extremely sharp price cuts to drive the early traffic on Friday," said Anne Brouwer, a partner with McMillan/Doolittle retail consulting firm in Chicago.

With a recession looming, the drop in the stock market and dwindling consumer confidence levels, retailers are offering bigger promotions to win over cash conscious consumers and clear inventory.

If they fail to sell a lot of merchandise during this three-day weekend, they'll face the prospect of clearing merchandise at profit-crunching prices closer to the holidays.

Retailers are offering an array of specials for early shoppers.

Kohl's opens at 4 a.m. Friday with a "Stretch Your Dollars" campaign where shoppers will see 50 percent off toys and a high-definition video camera for $100 - $100 less than the regular price.

Shortly after families finish Thanksgiving dessert, suburban outlet malls including Chicago Premium Outlets in Aurora, Gurnee Mills, Prime Outlets Huntley and the Prime Outlet Mall in Pleasant Prairie, Wis., are again opening at midnight.

Other stores are not far behind. Opening before the sun comes up are J.C. Penney at 4 a.m. followed by Ace Hardware, Dick's Sporting Goods and Best Buy at 5 a.m. and Meijer, Home Depot and Target at 6 a.m.

You don't even have to change out of your pajamas at Woodfield Shopping Center. The first 200 shoppers to arrive at the Schaumburg mall in their pajamas before 6 a.m. will receive a $50 mall gift card and a Santa hat. The line starts next to Todai Seafood Buffet.

"The buying incentives will be unprecedented," said George Rosenbaum, chairman of Leo. J. Shapiro & Associates, a Chicago market research firm.

As a result, he expects crowds, hungry for a good sale, could be bigger than ever.

"Consumers have pulled back so hard, they may have a little extra cash for good deals," he said. Lower gasoline prices over the past couple weeks also may help.

A hefty 45 percent of consumers reported they plan to shop on Black Friday or during the weekend after Thanksgiving, according to an International Council of Shopping Centers survey.

Those shoppers will frequent discounters most, 81 percent, followed by department stores, 78 percent and electronics third, 63 percent.

It doesn't seem to matter that stores have been running 50 percent off promotions and door-buster specials for weeks to attempt to get the season started. Tumbling back-to-school and fall sales have retailers struggling.

This season, holiday sales growth is estimated to be about 2.2 percent, according to the National Retail Federation. Previously, holiday sales increased about 4 percent each year.

Many retail experts believe these estimates are overly optimistic.

Economic conditions may result in the "the bleakest Christmas in two decades," Rosenbaum predicts.

And he warns that a lucrative Black Friday for retailers will not translate into a merry Christmas selling season.

"I'm not optimistic," Brouwer agreed. "October and early November sales indicate that consumers have made a significant shift," she said. "I think it's going to be a tough weekend and a tough season."

<p class="factboxheadblack">Deep discounts</p> <p class="News">Among the bargains you can find on Black Friday</p> <p class="breakhead"> 4 a.m.</p> <p class="News">Kohl's: High-definition video camera $100; 50% off toys</p> <p class="breakhead"> 5 a.m. </p> <p class="News">Best Buy: Magellan Portable GPS $80</p> <p class="News">Meijer: Phillips boom box $20; VTech Kizzone dig. camera $40 </p> <p class="News">Sears: KitchenAid 4.5-qt mixer $160; Die-hard boots 50% off</p> <p class="News">Toys 'R' Us: Hannah Montana Light N' Sound Stage $25</p> <p class="News">Wal-mart: GiiNii digital picture frame 8-inch $39; Power Wheels Barbie Jeep $88</p> <p class="breakhead"> 7 a.m.</p> <p class="News">Ace Hardware: G. Foreman Jumbo Grill $40 </p> <p class="breakhead"> 9 a.m.</p> <p class="News">Costco: Kenneth Cole watch $35; Motorola Bluetooth headset $50</p> <p class="News">*Most prices have been rounded </p> <p class="breakhead">Helpful hints</p> <p class="News">• Outlet malls opening at midnight include Chicago Premium Outlets in Aurora, Gurnee Mills, Prime Outlets Huntley and the Prime Outlet Mall in Pleasant Prairie, Wis. The Huntley mall is hosting Pajama Jam where the first 500 shoppers will receive free Jockey pajamas.</p> <p class="News">• Web sites are devoted to uncovering Black Friday deals. At <a href="http://www.dealnews.com" target="new">dealnews.com</a>, staff sorts through daily specials to find the best deal. Store coupons are also listed to print out.</p> <p class="News">• At <a href="http://www.BlackFriday.info" target="new">BlackFriday.info</a> shoppers can find out what's on sale where. Another hot site is <a href="http://www.2008blackfridayads.com" target="new">2008blackfridayads.com</a>. </p> <p class="News">Source: Web sites</p> <div class="infoBox"> <h1>More Coverage</h1> <div class="infoBoxContent"> <div class="infoArea"> <h2>Stories</h2> <ul class="links"> <li><a href="/story/?id=253421">To lure customers, stores offer a variety of ways to save <span class="date">[11/27/08]</span></a></li> <li><a href="/story/?id=253909">Gift cards may be popular for necessities <span class="date">[11/27/08]</span></a></li> <li><a href="/story/?id=253906">Weak economies may ground international shoppers <span class="date">[11/27/08]</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>