Cable barbarians at the Emmy gate

The major broadcast networks have been battling for years to fight off upstart cable channels, but never before like this, not in this precious arena, not for what claims to be TV's leading stamp of quality.

Not, in short, in the Emmy Awards.

The major networks have always dominated the Emmys, in part because they employ the most people - and therefore the most voters in the TV industry's top honors. A cable show had to be truly exceptional, like HBO's "Sex and the City" or "The Sopranos," to break through and claim an Emmy as best comedy or drama.

This year, however, cable figures to be stronger than ever when the 60th annual prime-time Emmy Awards are presented at 7 p.m. Sunday on ABC's WLS Channel 7. That's in part because this year's Emmy competition period extends back more than a year to the landmark summer of 2007, when cable series like AMC's "Mad Men," FX's "Damages" and TNT's "Saving Grace" and "The Closer" all broke through to new levels of popularity and critical recognition.

Combined with last winter's writers strike, which hamstrung the major networks, cable networks and shows claimed more Emmy nominations than ever when they were announced in July. "Mad Men," AMC's stylish period drama about advertising executives in the early '60s, led all dramas with 16 nominations, and along with "Damages" became the first basic-cable series ever nominated for best drama. Cable claimed four of six nods for lead dramatic actor and three of five for lead dramatic actress.

In comedies, NBC's "30 Rock" struck back to claim a record 17 nominations (padded by its many guest-star appearances), but even there it faces competition from HBO's "Entourage" and "Curb Your Enthusiasm," as well as its NBC Thursday running mate "The Office" and CBS' "Two and a Half Men."

As usual, HBO dominated the TV movie and miniseries categories, but never before like this, as it swept all 10 nominations for lead actor and actress.

Yet those are almost the only categories where cable is guaranteed a win. The TV industry remains entrenched in the old ways, and the old network empire figures to fight back when the actual Emmys are presented Sunday night. So here's a look at the way the top categories play out.

Drama

"Mad Men" is a lovely, sharp series with a rare subtlety, but for that reason it probably hasn't benefited from this summer's second season, which again has wowed the faithful without winning many new converts. Premium-cable Showtime's serial-killer series "Dexter" got some bad publicity from its run on CBS during the writers strike, and FX's "Damages" was just too uneven, a criticism that could also be applied to Fox's "House" and, of course, David E. Kelley's terminally over-the-top "Boston Legal" on ABC. ABC's "Lost" regained much of its focus and had a fine if short season, and it figures to be the rallying point for the networks.

Should win: "Mad Men."

Will win: "Lost."

Slighted: "The Wire," HBO's ever-underappreciated police procedural.

Lead actor

Cable nabbed four of the six nods, led by Jon Hamm of "Mad Men." The major networks were represented by Hugh Laurie of "House" and James Spader of "Boston Legal," an inexplicable favorite of Emmy voters. Yet the finest, most nuanced work was done by Michael C. Hall as "Dexter," making a serial killer somehow sympathetic. Bryan Cranston of "Breaking Bad" and Gabriel Burn of "In Treatment" also are nominated.

Should win: Hall.

Will win: Laurie.

Slighted: Dominic West of "The Wire."

Lead actress

Last summer's big three of Glenn Close of "Damages," Kyra Sedgwick of "The Closer" and Holly Hunter of "Saving Grace" go up against defending champion Sally Field of ABC's "Brothers & Sisters" and previous winner Mariska Hargitay of NBC's "Law & Order: SVU." Field is a popular TV lifer - Emmy voters, like Oscar voters, really seem to like her in spite of herself - but it says here Sedgwick has the appeal to pull off something of an upset.

Should win: Hunter.

Will win: Sedgwick.

Slighted: Previous winner Patricia Arquette of NBC's "Medium," pushed aside along with the ever-overlooked Kathryn Morris of CBS' "Cold Case."

Best supporting actor

Even here cable dominates with three nominations: Ted Danson and Zeljko Ivanek for "Damages" and John Slattery for "Mad Men." Yet can they defeat the more well-known Michael Emerson of "Lost," as well as perennial Emmy scenery chewer William Shatner of "Boston Legal?"

Should win: Ivanek, if only in belated recognition for "Homicide: Life on the Street."

Will win: Emerson.

Slighted: Ray Wise, whose ironic take on the devil made the CW's "Reaper" a standout.

Best supporting actress

ABC strikes back here, with only Dianne Wiest of HBO's "In Treatment" earning a nod for cable. Yet by any critical standard she deserves to best the two "Grey's Anatomy" nominees, as well as Rachel Griffiths of "Brothers & Sisters" and tiresome Emmy fave Candice Bergen of "Boston Legal" (which has never been mistaken for "Murphy Brown"). Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson of "Grey's Anatomy" round out the nominations.

Should win: Wiest.

Will win: Sandra Oh of "Anatomy."

Slighted: Mia Wasikowska as the suicidal gymnast in "Treatment."

Comedies

The major broadcast networks continue to do the conventional sitcom better than anyone else, and cable's attempts to add an "edge" to comedy haven't fared as well as it has in drama. So "30 Rock" should defend its Emmy over HBO's "Curb Your Enthusiasm," which had less than its best season, although "Entourage" could still surprise. Also nominated: "The Office" and "Two and a Half Men."

Should win: Nobody - not a single one of the nominated shows was at the peak of its powers.

Will win: "30 Rock."

Slighted: HBO's "Flight of the Conchords" and Comedy Central's "South Park," as usual exiled to the specialty animation categories.

Best actor

Alec Baldwin deserves to win as the egotistic network exec on "30 Rock," and did you see him campaigning recently on "60 Minutes?" Yet he faces personal and political opposition in the industry. Tony Shalhoub of USA's "Monk" is an Emmy fave, and both Steve Carell of "The Office" and Charlie Sheen of "Two and a Half Men" are lurking in hopes of making a network push to the Emmy. Lee Pace of "Pushing Daisies" offers a nice dose of new blood, but little else.

Should win: Baldwin.

Will win: Shalhoub, as voters fight their cable bias to remain true to a favorite.

Slighted: Patrick Warburton of CBS' "Rules of Engagement."

Best actress

Only Mary-Louise Parker of Showtime's "Weeds" cracks this category from cable. Otherwise, it figures to be a battle between Tina Fey of "30 Rock" and defending champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus of "The New Adventures of Old Christine." Also nominated: America Ferrera of "Ugly Betty" and Christina Applegate of "Samantha Who?"

Should and will win: Louis-Dreyfus.

Slighted: Sarah Silverman from her eponymous program on Comedy Central.

Best supporting actor

Can Neil Patrick Harris finally win one for the Emmy-ignored CBS sitcom "How I Met Your Mother?" To do so he'll have to beat out defending champ Jeremy Piven and Kevin Dillon of "Entourage" and Jon Cryer of "Two and a Half Men" and Rainn Wilson of "The Office."

Should win: Harris.

Will win: Piven.

Slighted: Harris' "Mother" co-star Jason Segel.

Best supporting actress

This is the only top category without a cable nominee. Two new names stand out: Kristin Chenoweth of "Daisies" and Amy Poehler, the first actor to earn a top nomination from "Saturday Night Live." Poehler will be tough to beat, although Jean Smart of "Samantha Who?" represents the old school. Also nominated: Holland Taylor of "Two and a Half Men" and Vanessa Williams in "Ugly Betty."

Should and will win: Poehler.

Slighted: Alyson Hannigan of "Mother."

Movies and miniseries

Cable dominates these categories. Look for HBO's "Bernard and Doris" to win for best movie, "John Adams" to win for best miniseries, and then Susan Sarandon Ralph Fiennes, Paul Giamatti and Laura Linney to duke it out in the combined acting categories.

Yet, again, will cable do as well in comedy and drama? The Emmy's traditional track record suggests not, but if cable is ever going to break through in a big way, this is the year.