What you need to know about Illini

Perspective can be a funny thing.

For just the third time in the last 17 seasons - and the first time since 2001 - Illinois hits Big Ten play holding down a spot in the Associated Press' Top 25.

That's cause for excitement, right?

Yet there's a pervasive feeling that this squad just doesn't have "it," whatever that might be.

Coach Ron Zook even called his guys in on their official day off (the Sunday after the 3-point win over Louisiana-Lafayette) to hold a "state of the union" talk and sort out the Illini's ills.

That's a confusing message for a team that needs to feel as confident as possible going into Saturday's game in Happy Valley.

Now, to confuse things a little further.

There's a good chance that No. 22 Illinois gets drilled at No. 12 Penn State.

It's a suspicion that only grows stronger now that Oregon State - a team that lost by 31 points at State College three weeks ago - can celebrate knocking off top-ranked USC on Thursday night.

But here's the thing Illinois fans need to remember if and when the Illini get wiped out during the whiteout at Beaver Stadium:

It doesn't mean this year's team won't turn out as good or better than the Rose Bowl edition.

At the same time, I'm sticking with what I've thought all along: Illinois won't win more than seven games during the regular season. That's 2 wins fewer than last year.

Now, you're asking: How can the 2008 Illini turn out to be as good or better than the 2007 Illini, yet wind up with 22 percent fewer wins?

That's not logical. But here are three reasons that lay out the case:

Regression to the mean: This is a highfalutin' mathematical principle that explains why sports teams tend to come out even over the long haul.

In 2006, Illinois was much better than a 2-10 outfit. It lost back-to-back home games on last-second field goals and hung all the way at Penn State and Wisconsin on the road only to lose.

In 2007, Illinois wasn't as good as a normal 9-3 team. Nationally ranked Penn State and Wisconsin had to come to Champaign and limped out with narrow losses.

A month later, the Illini somehow played the perfect game at No. 1 Ohio State. Even ardent Illinois fans must admit the Bucks would have won at least eight times out of 10 last year.

This year, it's time for Illinois to neither exaggerate its good fortune nor overdose on bad luck. That's a 6-6 or 7-5 season scheduled to happen, especially considering the schedule.

Ignoring the learning curve: Zook always likes to talk about how freshmen and sophomores will be much better as juniors and seniors.

Yet Zook has been proclaiming since February that this is a better team than last year's crew.

In doing so, he seems to have overlooked the importance of all the seniors he had on the Rose Bowl team - particularly on defense.

Inexperienced safeties Travon Bellamy, Donsay Hardeman, Bo Flowers, Nate Bussey and Garrett Edwards might be better athletes than the departed Justin Harrison and Kevin Mitchell, but those two dudes combined for 72 career starts.

Defensive tackle Chris Norwell started 46 games. Replacements Josh Brent and Corey Liuget have combined to start 1.

Middle linebacker J Leman started 41 consecutive games. Successor Brit Miller has admitted his adjustment from strongside linebacker to the "mike" has been more significant than he imagined.

While everyone in the world believes uber-athletic Martez Wilson will be a first-round draft pick some day, after three games he doesn't have the weakside linebacker chops that Antonio Steele built up over 25 consecutive starts.

Wilson, Bellamy, Hardeman, Brent, Liuget, etc., will make Illinois' defense stronger than before, but not before a few unexpected losses occur.

Heck, one almost happened against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Lack of appetite: After you've gorged yourself on Lawry's Prime Rib as part of the pre-Rose Bowl party circuit, it's hard to pretend you're still the mangy dog fighting for scraps at the Big Ten's back door.

Before the Rose Bowl run, Illinois spent four straight years at the bottom of the league. The veterans built up a fierce hunger for something better, but most of those vets already earned their diplomas and moved on.

Who'll teach the new guys how difficult it is to stay near the top? Maybe it's best Penn State takes a chunk out of them so the lesson can sink in faster.

lwillhite@dailyherald.com