Card carriers: Big weekend for Cubs, NL Central
The Cubs land in St. Louis today for a three-game series that could determine which team will have the upper hand in the National League Central race. Here are five statistically oriented reasons the Cardinals have built the NL's second-best record as they try to overtake the Cubs:
1. Fielding Phenoms
According to The Hardball Times, St. Louis led the league through Wednesday's games in fewest unearned runs allowed (22) and ranked third in MLB in Revised Zone Rating (.851). Basically all of the Cardinals - but particularly the infield of Troy Glaus, Cesar Izturis, Aaron Miles/Adam Kennedy and Albert Pujols - boast excellent range and turn far more batted balls into outs than normal teams.
2. Walks aren't clogging up the bases
The Cardinals' pitching staff surrenders just 3.1 walks per game, which ranks second in the NL. If you need an indication of how valuable this can be, Minnesota leads the majors in fewest walks per 9 innings (2.3) and the White Sox rank second (2.8). Both of those teams are faring better than expected, too.
3. Kyle Lohse is pitching out of his gourd
Three weeks before the season began, the Cards signed 1996 Cubs draftee Kyle Lohse to a 1-year, $4.25 million deal. The 29-year-old Lohse, who'll pitch Saturday, owns a 10-2 record and 3.67 ERA, both of which are well beyond his norms. Will he come down to earth? Considering he's striking out just 4.3 batters per 9 innings - and has given up just 7 homers in 105.1 innings - he seems due for a course correction.
4. Ryan Ludwick is hitting like Albert Pujols
After spending all of 2006 with Detroit's Class AAA team, Ludwick signed a minor-league deal with the Cards. A "Quadruple A" player to that point in his career, Ludwick joined St. Louis on May 6, 2007 and hasn't stopped hitting since. He owns 30 homers, 44 doubles and 108 RBI in 563 at-bats with the Cards.
5. Pujols is better than ever before
There's a stat called "OPS+" that measures a player's performance relative to the rest of his league. Pujols has enjoyed better seasons if you judge solely by homers and RBI, but his .471 on-base percentage and .620 slugging percentage in a down year for offense gives him an OPS+ of 188 through Wednesday's games. A league-average player carries an OPS+ of 100, so this means Pujols is almost twice as good as a decent player.
A bonus Pujols note: If he retired today, he'd finish with baseball's fourth-best slugging percentage (.620), trailing only Ruth, Gehrig and Ted Williams. His career batting average (.332) would rank 29th all-time - and second to Tony Gwynn among those who played after 1960.