O'Hare project could cost anywhere from $15 billion to $67 billion

The numbers range from $15 billion to $20 billion and higher.

Not a comfortable difference if you're a frequent flier who pays ticket fees or an airline facing soaring fuel prices.

But that's the difference between estimates given by the city of Chicago for its 20-year O'Hare Master Plan and airport expansion foes.

The city breaks down its roughly $15 billion master plan into three components.

• The O'Hare Modernization Program calls for building six parallel runways and a western terminal. Originally projected at $6.6 billion, it's now hovering above $8 billion. Early $2.9 billion costs for the first phase of the OMP now sit at $3.3 billion.

• The World Gateway Program would add two new terminals plus other expansion for $3.2 billion.

• Capital improvement projects estimated at $3.6 billion.

But critics of O'Hare expansion scoff that the $15 billion isn't close to the ultimate cost.

Leaders representing Bensenville and Elk Grove Village, two towns fighting the city's proposal, argue the more accurate figure is in excess of $20 billion for the master plan. The city isn't considering the uncertain finances of the airline industry, either, they charge.

Another airport watchdog, the Alliance of Residents Concerning O'Hare contends the real number is from $40 billion to $67 billion and that the city isn't adding all the construction costs and debt payments.

The first phase of the OMP building two new runways, an air traffic control tower and extending one runway is funded. Sources are federal grants, passenger ticket charges and bonds backed by major carriers such as United and American Airlines that contribute to O'Hare through gate and landing fees.

The city is set to complete a new north runway and extension this fall.

"You have to have vision," Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley said Monday at a press conference. "If we don't expand today, it's going to cost more money later."

But how to pay for the final stage that also includes two runways, a runway extension and western terminal is a challenge.

City officials have said they are open to third-party financing involving leasing or owning property like the new terminal.

In perspective

So of the cost projections out there, which is the most real?

"The numbers that are the least reliable are the city's," said Jay Stewart, executive director of the Chicago-based Better Government Association.

He points to cost overruns on city projects such as Millenium Park.

But University of Illinois at Chicago expert Michael Pagano cites complex factors such as environmental problems, litigation, which O'Hare is mired in, and rising costs for materials.

"All mega-projects are unique," said Pagano, the College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs' interim dean. "There are legitimate reasons for cost overruns and reasons that are less so.

"The most important thing is that there is a public accounting of the cost on a periodic basis," Pagano said, adding, "it's good to be skeptically healthy."

Joe Schwieterman, transportation expert and director of the Chaddick Institute for Public Policy at DePaul University argues that the benefits of the OMP outweigh other considerations.

Because of habitual delays, "O'Hare isn't fully functional without the improvements including phase two," Schwieterman said. "We still need to plan for growth over the long-term."

Airline officials said they supported modernization at O'Hare, noting it ranks among the worst in America for on-time performance.

But they also privately acknowledge concerns about the slumping industry and high fuel costs.

While backing parallel runway plans, in such tough times, it would help if the city changed its all or nothing mindset and scaled down parts of the OMP, such as the western terminal estimated at $2 billion, they have noted.