Bill James retrieves his wand from baseball's storage bins
Here's an early entrant for baseball's Comeback of the Year: none other than stats guru Bill James.
James, of course, changed the game with his annual "Abstracts" in the '80s, until he "broke the wand" and gave them up. He went on to write books, like his "Historical Baseball Abstract" and "Guide to Baseball Managers" and "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?," the definitive work on Cooperstown. Along the way, he tried another annual for a few years in the '90s, before giving that up as well.
He still lends his name to various publications, most prominently his annual "Handbook," but more recently he seems to have devoted his time to being the senior baseball operations advisor to the Boston Red Sox, playing a role in their two World Series wins.
Now, however, he's back with "The Bill James Gold Mine 2008," selling for $22 from ACTA Sports. It's not as exhaustive as the old "Abstracts," but it includes entries on each team, as well as other essays.
Yet a closer look reveals that it shouldn't be called a "comeback," so much as it's an evolution to something else entirely. The "Gold Mine" is basically a hard-copy advertisement for his new subscription web site, billjamesonline.net. The book collects essays found on the site, which can be accessed for a more-than-reasonable $3 a month.
What distinguishes James' work, then as now, is his inquisitive nature. With the explosion of baseball statistical analysis in his influential wake, he now has more to ponder than ever before. Ergo the web site, ergo the book.
Or, as he explains in an early essay titled "I Dunno": "What does any of this mean? Frankly, we don't have a clue. Of course, many people are going to look at it like 'that data is completely meaningless,' because they don't know what it means. I look at it a little differently. I look at it like 'Hey, this will be fun, trying to figure out why this data breaks the way it does.' The fact that we don't understand the data, of course, does not really indicate that the data is useless. It merely indicates that it is yet to be deciphered. …
"That's sort of the idea of the book: let's look at everything from a different angle, and figure out what we don't know, what we don't understand. We've discovered the island of lost baseball statistics. Now we'll start working on a map."
Which pitcher had the worst luck in the National League last year? James argues not the Giants' Matt Cain, who got an average of just 3.16 runs a start on a woeful offensive team, but the Cubs' Rich Hill, who in 32 starts received 40 fewer runs than the Cubs otherwise averaged.
James never lets the numbers get tedious, brightening this up with offhand comments such as Alfonso Soriano as a 30/30/30 man: "30 homers, 30 steals, 30 walks."
James adds, "Last year, Soriano swung at 467 pitches that were outside the strike zone, third-most in the majors. It was only the second time since we began compiling the data in 2002 that he'd failed to lead the majors. Back in 2004, Vladimir Guerrero topped him by 33."
Yet before you insist on moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot, mull this James nugget: "The Cubs were ahead after the first inning an astonishing 53 times in 2007, best in the National League." Credit Soriano.
Speaking of which, the White Sox were ahead of the opposition more often than not through each of the first four innings last year, an amazing stat for a team that wound up 72-90, and testimony to how bad the bullpen was from the fifth inning on. And talk about bad luck, James writes, "In 2007 every White Sox batter with 150 or more at-bats except one (Rob Mackowiak) finished the season with an OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) below his career average." That's a rare feat.
So, yes, this is a move to something new for James, but it's also great to have him back questioning the baseball "book" and the conventional wisdom. That process figures to be more timely than ever on his web site, but where does that leave the "Gold Mine"?
James says it's "intended to be an annual book, publishing annual selections from the best of Bill James Online, although I suppose that how many annuals we will do will depend on how many of you buy the book."
In the air
Remotely interesting: The Cubs make their spring TV debut on Comcast SportsNet Chicago against the Angels at 2 p.m. Saturday and are also on CSNC Sunday at 2 p.m. against the Giants. The White Sox make their CSNC debut at 2 p.m. Monday against the Royals and are also on Thursday at 3 p.m. against the Rangers.
WPWR Channel 50 airs the girls' 3A and 4A basketball finals this weekend. The 3A semis are at noon today, the 4As at 6:30 p.m. Then the 3A consolation and championship games are at 11 a.m. Saturday, followed by the 4As at 6:30 p.m. Check with your local cable operator for the channel listing.
End of the dial: The Rush opens its Arena Football season at 8 p.m. Monday on WSCR 670-AM with Tom Dore and James "Big Cat" Williams on the call. Dan Bernstein will fill in for Dore on any conflicts with the Bulls this season. ESPN2 has the TV coverage. The Score didn't seem to bother to mike the field or the grandstand for Wednesday's White Sox exhibition opener. It sounded as if Ed Farmer and Chris Singleton were doing the game via Western Union reports from the station studios.
The Score's Mike Mulligan and Brian Hanley do their show live in front of an audience from the Jerry Springer studio in NBC Tower at 10 a.m. Monday. Today, from 2 to 6 p.m., WMVP's Dan McNeil, John Jurkovic and Harry Teinowitz will host their show live at Dick's River Roadhouse in Mount Prospect.
-- Ted Cox