Syndicated columnist Byron York: Joe Biden is still dragging his party down
There has been a surge of optimism among Democrats lately when it comes to November's midterm elections. The short version of the thinking is: Maybe we're not going to get clobbered after all! But much of their hope is still likely in vain. For one reason: President Joe Biden.
It's true that so-called generic ballot polling has moved a few points in the Democrats' direction. The generic ballot question is: If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate for your representative in Congress?
In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, the Republican Party has led in the generic ballot question since late last year.
At one point, in February, the GOP lead was 4 points. For much of the summer, it's been 2 points. But recently, Democrats have been catching up, and at the moment the two parties are essentially tied in the RCP average, with Republicans at 44.2% and Democrats at 44%.
In the Senate, Democrats do have some reason for optimism about keeping their 50-50 tie, which, with the Democratic vice president, gives them operational control. Former President Donald Trump has pushed weak candidates in a few key races - Georgia and Pennsylvania foremost among them - who might end up costing Republicans their chance to win control of the Senate.
There has been much discussion about Trump's clout in GOP primaries but, of course, the final test is whether his candidates actually get elected.
The problem is, the House still looks bad for Democrats. And perhaps the biggest reason is this: A president's job approval rating is a critical indicator, perhaps the best single indicator, of how well his party will do in midterm elections for the House. And Biden's job approval rating is still low and unlikely to rise out of the danger zone in the next 2½ months.
History is the evidence. There have been a dozen midterm elections since 1974. The president's party gained seats in just two of them.
One was 2002, when the nation was on war footing under President George W. Bush and voters were not in the mood to challenge presidential leadership. Bush's job approval at election time was 63%. Even with that, his party picked up only six seats. But of course the real news was that the GOP did not lose seats.
The other example was 1998, when President Bill Clinton was being impeached by Republicans - a very unpopular move on the GOP's part. Clinton's job approval rating soared to 66%, and Democrats picked up five seats.
Republicans, who thought they would gain a bunch of seats, were stunned.
Even a president with high approval ratings can lose seats. It happened in 1986, when Ronald Reagan's job approval rating was 63% - really good - and the Republican Party still lost five seats. In 1990, George H.W. Bush's rating was 58%, and his party lost eight seats.
The bottom line is that a high job approval rating can protect a president against blowout midterm losses. On the other hand, when a president's rating drops, bad things happen for his party.
Look at a few examples, all with numbers from the Gallup poll: In 2010, Barack Obama's job approval rating was 45%, and his party lost 63 seats in the House. In 1994, Clinton's rating was 46%, and his party lost 53 House seats. In 2018, Trump's rating was 41%, and his party lost 40 seats in the House. In 1982, Reagan's rating was 42%, and his party lost 26 seats. In 2006, George W. Bush's rating was 38%, and his party lost 30 seats.
Biden's job approval rating at the moment is 41.2% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. The numbers are very similar with a different mix of polls at FiveThirtyEight, where Biden's approval rating is 40.7%.
Biden's approval rating at day 581 of his presidency is lower than any other president since World War II, with the exceptions of Jimmy Carter and Harry Truman. Even Trump, whose ratings were low his entire presidency, had a higher approval at this point in his term than Biden does now.
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