Analysis: Raul unlike Fidel, but little change will come to Cuba

HAVANA -- Cuba's new President Raul Castro shuns the spotlight and often looks uncomfortable when he has to appear in public. Friends call him "the Prussian" for his cold, efficient style and describe his leadership as businesslike -- even boring.

That's very different from his iconic elder brother Fidel, who inspired three generations of revolutionaries worldwide and never met a grand stage he didn't like.

Separated by five years, the pair is so different many doubted Raul could successfully govern when he assumed provisional leadership July 31, 2006. But those doubts quickly melted away.

Cuba remained calm and little-changed for nearly 19 months while Fidel Castro, now 81, stayed out of sight after emergency intestinal surgery.

"I think that Raul is very much in charge. Obviously he's had almost 19 months now of doing it," said Brian Latell, a longtime CIA analyst who wrote a 2002 book about the younger Castro called "After Fidel." "His standing with the Cuban people has improved so much, I think, just because he's so different from Fidel."

Raul has spent nearly all of his life in his older brother's shadow and he showed no signs of racing to the spotlight in the moments after he was named president Sunday by Cuba's parliament.

"There is only one commander in chief," he said, referring to Fidel.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez noted Raul's long record of loyalty as he welcomed the new Cuban leader:

"Raul has always been there, has always been quiet, has always been almost invisible, but working the most, faithful to the revolution, faithful to the people and faithful to his marrow to his elder brother Fidel."

Raul has served as defense minister since he, his brother and a band of bearded rebels toppled dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959.

The nation's top generals are intensely loyal to Raul and he has long wielded almost absolute power over as many as 50,000 active troops, and firepower that includes Soviet-era tanks and fighter planes.

"As soldiers, they are happy with a man who they know extremely well after 49 years, a man who chose many of them for top command positions and has taken care of them," said Cuba military expert Hal Klepak, of the Royal Military College of Canada.

Raul Castro is said to be quick with a joke and kind to those he works with, but he has a well-known tough side, overseeing the execution of political opponents following the revolution.

The younger Castro embraced communism before his older brother did, but under his guidance the armed forces played a key role in small, free-market reforms that bolstered the economy since the Soviet Union's breakup cost Cuba its chief economic benefactor. Top officers now operate major tourism, retail and export companies, even produce basic foodstuffs.

Since taking power provisionally, Raul has raised expectations that small economic reforms could be coming, calling for unspecified "structural changes" in the communist system and encouraging Cubans to only debate the country's economic future.

Latell suggested that Raul could face growing dissent if he does not promote some economic openings. But the Cuban economy is no longer the shambles it was after the Soviet Union's collapse, and Chinese credits, Venezuelan oil subsidies, and high international prices for Cuban-produced nickel and copper have helped it grow.

Klepak said a Raul Castro government may not embrace reform until tougher economic times.

"My analysis is that Raul Castro is a reformer when it helps the revolution and a conservative when those reforms threaten what he considers the success of the revolution," he said.