Any Delta merger will face tough U.S. antitrust review

WASHINGTON -- Delta Air Lines would face an unprecedented airline antitrust review if it decides to propose a merger with either Northwest Airlines or United Airlines parent UAL Corp.

Industry consultants, lawyers and former government officials agree either merger would present the Justice Department with its toughest airline test. And with a crucial election year under way, Congress would certainly weigh in.

"None of this is going to be easy," said Darryl Jenkins, a Virginia-based airline consultant. "This is an awfully big merger. No matter who does it, it will be looked at very carefully."

A Delta merger review would include serious scrutiny of large international route networks. It would also test a popular assumption that the merger parties would get more favorable treatment from the Bush administration compared with a possible Democratic one in 2009.

Delta management wants to begin formal merger talks with Northwest and Chicago-based United. The airlines have not commented.

For sheer size and reach, No. 3 Delta hooking up with either No. 2 United or No. 5 Northwest is only comparable to an earlier bid by United to swallow US Airways. That attempt collapsed in 2001 after an lengthy antitrust review, completed by the Bush Justice Department, raised serious competition concerns.

Experts say Congress would seek to have influence. Lawmakers, worrying about the impact on airline service to their districts, jobs and ticket prices, could not halt a merger outright. However, they could pressure the White House and antitrust enforcers. Delta appealed to lawmakers in its successful effort to turn back a hostile merger bid from US Airways Group Inc. last year.

Two aviation heavyweights in the Democratic-run House, Reps. James Oberstar of Minnesota, where Northwest is headquartered, and Jerry Costello of United's home base of Illinois, are both skeptical of big mergers. They have signaled in recent months at hearings and in interviews the industry should proceed carefully.