'Ebert Effect' may sway Oscars

2007 created such a bumper crop of high-quality movies that Tuesday morning's announcement of the Academy Awards nominations should be an embarrassment of entertainment riches.

What will be nominated?

Glad you asked, because this year I'm predicting a little movie called "Juno" -- a small-budget, domestic comedy that would normally fall below the Oscar voters' radar -- might wind up in competition for some major Oscars.

Why?

Glad you asked, again, because this year we could be witnessing a wild card factor that has quietly influenced the Oscar selection process more each year. I simply call it The Ebert Effect.

My colleague, Chicago movie critic Roger Ebert, has come out swinging for Jason Reitman's "Juno." He named the movie his No. 1 pick for 2007. (As did I.)

He lavished praise on actress Ellen Page's performance as a comically caustic pregnant teen. (As did I.) Will that be enough to secure nominations for best picture and actress? And more?

I predict the Academy voters will say yes.

Never underestimate the power of America's No. 1 movie pundit to subtly sway Academy voters with his passionate, intelligent championship of a movie or filmmaker.

Would Clint Eastwood's 11th-hour 2004 release "Million Dollar Baby" have snagged the golden statuette (for film, director, actress, supporting actor) had Ebert not put on his boxing gloves and fought relentlessly for its recognition as the year's best motion picture?

Maybe. But I'm not so sure.

I've always had a sneaking suspicion that a majority of Academy voters, caught up in a flurry of movies crammed into a too-tight time frame, actually welcome a thoughtful critic's well-articulated and persuasive case for why one excellent motion picture deserves consideration over another.

No American film critic has the same high level of media exposure that Ebert enjoys. That exposure, coupled with the ferocity of his metaphorical pen, has evolved into The Ebert Effect, a real phenomenon that will be roundly tested when the nominees are announced.

How so? Read on for my Oscar nomination predictions for 2007!

BEST PICTURE: Two features will probably square off for this ultimate Oscar smack-down. The Coens' "No Country For Old Men" will take on P.T. Anderson's "There Will Be Blood." Tony Gilroy's masterful "Michael Clayton" deserves to be here as well as Joe Wright's "Atonement." The fifth slot could go to Tim Burton's flashy slasher epic "Sweeney Todd" or Sean Penn's "Into the Wild," but if the Ebert Effect gets factored in, expect "Juno" to have an outside shot at the big enchilada.

BEST ACTOR: Tragically, the four nominees who aren't Daniel Day-Lewis will be in for disappointment on Feb. 24. As an obsessive, greedy, Charles Foster Kane-like oil baron, Day-Lewis has already greased this trophy. His top-notch competition will likely include George Clooney as attorney "Michael Clayton" and Johnny Depp as demon barber "Sweeney Todd." After that, things get dicey. I would love to see Ryan Gosling nominated for his heart-rending performance as the doll lover in "Lars and the Real Girl." If enough voters saw "Starting Out in the Evening," it would be divine for Frank Langella to be nominated for playing an aging novelist. If not them, then Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), Emile Hirsch("Into the Wild") and Denzel Washington("American Gangster") have a shot.

BEST ACTRESS: Traditional Oscar wisdom would give classy Hollywood vet Julie Christie the edge for her role as an Alzheimer's patient in "Away From Her." But she's threatened by -- you guessed it -- the Ebert Effect that elevates "Juno" star Ellen Page into the No. 1 position. Page's performance is so precious that I will personally lead torch-bearing townspeople on a protest if Page is ignored at the nominations. Another sure contender will be Marion Cotillard for "La Vie En Rose." After that, it could be a toss-up between Laura Linney ("The Savages"), Keira Knightley ("Atonement"), Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart") and -- if wishes could come true -- Amy Adams("Enchanted").

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Another slam-dunk, this one for Javier Bardem as the chilling killer in "No Country For Old Men." His competition will likely be Hal Holbrook ("Into The Wild"), Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") and Philip Seymour Hoffman (take your pick: "Charlie Wilson's War," "By the Time the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "The Savages"). We have outside shots for Casey Aflleck ("The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michael Clayton"), Josh Brolin ("No Country For Old Men") and even John Travolta("Hairspray").

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett's critically acclaimed performance as Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There" puts her at the top of the list, but expect strong support for Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone"), Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton"), Catherine Keener ("Into The Wild") and Saorise Ronan ("Atonement"). Big pleasant surprises would be Vanessa Redgrave ("Atonement") and the late Adrienne Shelley("Waitress").

BEST DIRECTOR: Joel and Ethan Coen don't exactly have it in the bag for "No Country For Old Men," but close enough. Other likely nominees include Paul Thomas Anderson ("There Will Be Blood"), Joe Wright ("Atonement"), Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"), Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton") and Tim Burton ("Sweeney Todd"). And if the Ebert Effect is in full swing, Jason Reitman will nab a nom for "Juno."