Illinois may be better than record indicates , but only wins will prove it
When the NCAA Tournament committee evaluates a team's résumé, it usually turns the page immediately when it sees five-game losing streaks and 0-4 conference starts.
But when Illinois coach Bruce Weber looks at his team's overall results, he sees a crew that looks a lot more like NCAA quality than Big Ten basement rubbish.
Weber made his case, albeit in sentence-fragment form, after Illinois' 62-58 loss at No. 10 Indiana on Sunday.
"We can compete with people in the country," Weber said. "You look at the people we beat, even Arizona State. Arizona, you know, you guys were there for that one. We should've won that one.
"So Missouri just goes and beats Texas and scores 97. It's not that we're that bad, but we just can't find ways to win."
After he strung these thoughts together, it made me wonder: Is he just blowing off steam?
Or might there be a quantitative way to prove Illinois (8-9) is better than the record indicates?
Fortunately, the Sagarin ratings can come to our rescue and let us know whether a team is over-performing or under-performing its record.
As veteran Sagarin watchers know, the Bloomington, Ind.-based mathematician actually provides two rankings for each college basketball team.
The first rating, known as ELO--CHESS, evaluates teams simply on whether they win or lose.
The second rating, known as PREDICTOR, takes into account the scores and schedule and serves as a team's true power ranking.
Illinois checked in at No. 127 nationally in the ELO--CHESS through Sunday's games … but No. 59 in the PREDICTOR.
This suggests the Illini, who have faced the nation's 14th-toughest schedule per Sagarin, are far better than their record indicates.
As it turns out, Illinois' massive 68-spot improvement from ELO--CHESS to PREDICTOR ranks sixth among Division I's 341 teams.
Only Kentucky (111-spot difference), Southern Miss (85), UMKC (80), San Francisco (75) and Alabama State (75) have a greater disparity.
And since all of those teams are well below Illinois in the Sagarin ratings, this suggests the Illini just might have the best chance to shrug off a ruinous first half and squeeze back into the NCAA Tournament race.
Of course, they need to win one Big Ten game before they can win 10 of them.
Game of the Week: Delving further into the Sagarin ratings, we learn that the best basketball school in our state is … Illinois State!
Under new coach Tim Jankovich, the Redbirds (13-3) are 39th nationally according to ELO--CHESS and No. 57 per PREDICTOR.
Illinois State has fired out to a 5-0 start in the Missouri Valley, which is good for a share of first place with Drake.
The Bulldogs (14-1) showed up at No. 26 in this week's Associated Press poll, while the Redbirds checked in at No. 34.
Presuming they win their games Wednesday, they'll battle for sole possession of the MVC lead at 7 p.m. Saturday in Des Moines, Iowa.
Drake, incidentally, has received a huge contribution from former walk-on Jonathan Cox.
The 2004 Barrington High School graduate ranks third on the team in scoring (12.0 ppg) and second in the MVC in rebounding (8.6 rpg).
Oh, the 6-foot-8, 225-pound Cox also leads the conference in 3-point shooting percentage. He has hit 21 of 40 (.525) per Drake's stats and 21 of 41 according to the MVC.
Media guide fun: Illinois, like most schools, lists a player's family members as part of each media guide bio.
For example, freshman forward Bill Cole's bio mentions how his father, Terry, played defensive end on Illinois' 1983 Big Ten champs.
So how did Illinois assistant sports information director Derrick Burson handle freshman Jeff Jordan's dad, Michael?
"Father's basketball accomplishments are far too great to even attempt listing."
Classic.