Iraq withdrawal may slow to stop
WASHINGTON -- The first hint that President Bush might hit the pause button on troop cuts in Iraq was his offer to Gen. David Petraeus: "If you want to slow her down, fine."
That was a little over two weeks ago. Then Bush invoked the top commander's name again, in his State of the Union speech, saying the general worries about troop cuts leading to "disintegration" of Iraq's defenses.
It's now clear: The White House is reluctant to continue the cuts beyond July.
Conditions in Iraq may yet improve enough this spring to convince Bush, but the situation looks just shaky enough to cast doubt on the prospect of deeper reductions.
In fact, the administration is sending strong signals that reductions in Iraq will slow or stop altogether this summer, jeopardizing hopes of relieving the strain on the Army and Marine Corps and reviving debate over an open-ended U.S. commitment in the country.
U.S. commanders are concerned that the improvement in security in Iraq since June -- to a degree few had predicted when Bush ordered five more Army brigades to the country a year ago -- is tenuous and could be reversed if the extra troops come out too soon.
One of those extra brigades left in December and the other four are due to come out by July, leaving 15 brigades, or roughly 130,000 to 135,000 troops -- the same number as before Bush sent the reinforcements.
Petraeus is scheduled to report to the president and to Congress in April on possible additional cutbacks and any recommended changes in strategy. Petraeus recently said it would be prudent to "let things settle a bit" after the current round of troop cuts is completed in July.
Majority Democrats in Congress have pressed unsuccessfully to wind down the war quickly, in part out of concern that more firepower should be transferred to Afghanistan, where the security situation has deteriorated. Reluctance by Bush to continue the troop drawdown beyond July is likely to trigger a new round of conflict with the anti-war Democrats, especially with the November elections ahead.
Petraeus seems at this point to be inclined to declare a pause in reductions after July, although no decisions have been made and there are competing pressures from within the Pentagon. The Army in particular wants additional reductions to enable it to shorten Iraq tours from 15 months to 12 months. The longer tours are among pressures that Army leaders fear could break the force.
Petraeus speaks regularly with Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other administration officials to keep them informed of his thinking, although he has not yet made a recommendation to Bush. A senior administration official said Petraeus has made clear he is "concerned about a rush to 10" -- a reference to the 10-brigade force level that some administration officials see as an attractive target to hit by the time Bush leaves the White House a year from now.
The official briefed reporters last week at the White House on condition of anonymity.
With months to go before a decision has to be made, it is possible that circumstances in Iraq will change, for better or for worse. Thus Petraeus is likely to want as much time as possible before committing himself.
The first sign Bush might endorse a pause in troop reductions came earlier this month when he recounted for reporters his meeting with Petraeus in Kuwait on Jan. 12.
"My attitude is, if he didn't want to continue the drawdown, that's fine with me, in order to make sure we succeed," Bush said. "I said to the general, if you want to slow her down, fine; it's up to you."
In his State of the Union address Monday, Bush emphasized the risks -- with no mention of the benefits -- of continuing the cutbacks beyond July.
"Any further drawdown of U.S. troops will be based on conditions in Iraq and the recommendations of our commanders," Bush said. "General Petraeus has warned that too fast a drawdown could result in the 'disintegration of the Iraqi security forces, al-Qaida-Iraq regaining lost ground, a marked increase in violence.' "
He added: "Having come so far and achieved so much, we must not allow this to happen."
In referring to Petraeus' concerns, Bush appeared to be quoting from the general's testimony to Congress in September. In those remarks Petraeus cited a Defense Intelligence Agency report on what might happen if there were a rapid withdrawal of American combat forces, not specifically a cut from 15 brigades to 10 brigades.
Gates has said several times in recent weeks that he hopes conditions in Iraq will permit the withdrawal of an additional five brigades by the end of the year. That would leave the 10 brigades in combat, about 100,000 troops. That compares with today's total of 157,000.
In brief remarks to The Associated Press during a visit to Capitol Hill on Tuesday, Gates gave no indication that he had changed his view.
"I've said I would hope that we would continue the pace of withdrawals and that conditions on the ground would permit the withdrawals to continue in the second half of the year. That's where I still am," he said.
Although Bush regularly cites Petraeus as the adviser on whom he relies for decisions on Iraq, the general is not the only senior official who will have a say.
Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, said Tuesday that Gates will offer his views, as will Adm. William J. Fallon, the Central Command chief who is doing his own assessment of Iraq in light of U.S. military requirements elsewhere in the Middle East and in Afghanistan. In addition, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is heading another review with the chiefs of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps.
The president met Tuesday in the Cabinet Room with members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and combatant commanders, including Fallon, and later was having dinner with the military leaders and their spouses. Bush said he was going to talk with them about the war on terror and their common desire to protect America.
Petraeus himself is publicly cautious about troop levels in Iraq.
In remarks on CNN on Sunday, Petraeus said he is still analyzing conditions in Iraq and may want to wait until after this current series of troop reductions is completed in July before setting a new course.
"We will, though, need to have some time to let things settle a bit, if you will, after we complete the withdrawal" in July of the five brigades, he said, noting that losing five brigades reduces his total combat power by one-quarter.
"We think (it) would be prudent to do some period of assessment, then to make decisions," he added.
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