It's 'make or break' time for the prime minister of Iraq

A new movement to oust Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is gathering force in Baghdad. And although the United States is counseling against this change of government, a senior U.S. official in the Iraqi capital says it's a moment of "breakthrough or breakdown" for Maliki's regime. The new push against Maliki comes from Kurdish leaders, who, U.S. and Iraqi sources told me, sent him an ultimatum in late December. "The letter was clear in saying we are concerned about the direction of policies in Baghdad," said a senior Kurdish official. He described the Dec. 21 letter as "a sincere effort from the Kurdish parties to help the government reform -- or else."

The Kurds are upset that Maliki hasn't delivered on promises they say he made to them last summer. Maliki pledged that his government would pass an oil law and a regional-powers law, and that it would conduct a referendum on the future of Kirkuk. None of these promises has been delivered.

The strongest anti-Maliki voice is Massoud Barzani, the dominant political leader in Kurdistan. Barzani agreed to back Maliki last summer after a personal telephone call from President Bush. Now, fuming about Turkish attacks across the border last month and the delay on Kirkuk, Barzani is on the warpath.

Ryan Crocker, U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, met after Christmas in Kurdistan with Barzani and Jalal Talabani, the Iraqi president and the region's other ruling warlord. In an interview Tuesday from Baghdad, Crocker said his message to the Kurds was: "We think everyone should be placing emphasis on making the government more effective, not on changing the government."

Although U.S. officials are counseling against removing Maliki, they agree that the prime minister must govern more effectively and inclusively in coming months.

The anti-Maliki forces would like to replace him with Adel Abdul Mahdi, one Iraq's vice presidents and a leader of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Mahdi's supporters think they can muster the 138 votes needed for a no-confidence vote in parliament, by combining 53 votes from the Kurdish parties with 55 votes from Sunni groups and 30 from Hakim's Islamic Council. Add another 40 votes from supporters of former prime ministers Ayad Allawi and Ibrahim al-Jafari, and you're close to the two-thirds majority needed to form a new government.

The biggest obstacle to removing Maliki is the Shiite religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who is said to be frustrated with Maliki's performance but wary of dividing the Shiite alliance. "Najaf (Sistani's headquarters) is unhappy," said one top Iraqi leader. But the senior U.S. official said he was "certain" Sistani had not yet blessed any change of government. Though Bush administration officials share Iraqi frustration with Maliki, they fear that a change of regime would add delay and distrust to the already chaotic political scene in Baghdad.

Rather than dumping Maliki, the administration hopes to work around him, by operating through a coalition known as the "three plus one." That group includes, in addition to Maliki, President Talabani and vice presidents Mahdi and Tariq al-Hashimi. "Our message to Maliki is that you can't govern solo. You have to govern as part of a group," says a second senior U.S. official. With a push from this alliance, Crocker hopes the Iraqi parliament will pass a law easing de-Baathification as early as the end of this week, and a budget by mid-January -- breaking the political logjam.

For an America caught up in its own political drama, the Baghdad primary seems remote. But what happens in Iraq during the next several weeks will shape events there for the rest of 2008. For Maliki, just back in Baghdad after a visit to London doctors for treatment for exhaustion, it's "make or break" time.

© 2008, Washington Post Writers Group