NBC's 'Leno' move scatters younger viewers

NBC's exit from scripted series to air "The Jay Leno Show" weeknights at 10 p.m. has left 1.82 million young viewers up for grabs, and CBS and ABC have let most of them slip away six weeks into the television season.

CBS, based in New York, has lost 162,000 viewers in the 18-49 age group advertisers target, while ABC has added 245,000 this season through Nov. 1, according to Nielsen Co. data. Combined, CBS and ABC have gained 83,000 in the demographic. Fox doesn't compete at 10 p.m.

The results show competitors have struggled to attract the TV homes NBC surrendered when the network replaced its 10 p.m. dramas. While some shows including ABC's "Private Practice" have added viewers, most of the 1.82 million young adults NBC lost have scattered -- to the hundreds of cable channels available, or to the Web, or they are watching programs on digital-video recorders.

"ABC and CBS didn't really pounce on the Leno move," said Don Seaman, head of TV research at MPG North America, a New York-based media buyer whose clients include McDonald's Corp., Sears Holding Corp. and Carnival Cruise Lines. "I was kind of surprised that they didn't go in with some blood in the water and say, 'Well, let's put this puppy down.'"

Cable audience data show similar trends, with nightly viewing at 10 p.m. by 18-to-49-year-olds flat or down four out of five nights, according to the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau in New York, which used data from Nielsen.

"10 o'clock really has become a victim of more drastic fragmentation than anything else," Seaman said in an interview.

'The Good Wife'

In all age groups, CBS and ABC have picked up a higher proportion of the 2.4 million viewers NBC lost at 10. Together, the two networks have added about 859,000 viewers, gaining more than one-third of the audience NBC lost, Nielsen data show.

CBS is registering gains at 10 p.m. on Tuesdays and Thursdays, according to Nielsen data through Oct. 25 supplied by the network. The new political drama "The Good Wife" is attracting 2.1 million more viewers of all ages than "Without a Trace" last year, and the Thursday crime series "The Mentalist" is up 4.3 million over its predecessor.

"At 10 o'clock we're winning every single night of the week by a large margin," CBS Corp. Chief Executive Officer Leslie Moonves said on a Nov. 5 conference call. "Last year our ratings were up in every single demographic, and this year we're up as well in viewers. So there isn't a steep decline at CBS. There are steep declines at some of the other places."

Walt Disney Co.'s ABC, based in New York, has increased its audience with the crime series "Castle" and "Private Practice," according to Nielsen data supplied by CBS.

"The network is definitely making inroads against NBC's 'Leno' experiment," Jeffrey Lindsey, an ABC spokesman, said in an e-mail.

'Sons of Anarchy'

The second season of "Sons of Anarchy" on News Corp.'s FX cable channel has boosted its audience by 77 percent in 18-49 on Tuesdays at 10 p.m. On Oct. 20 the show drew 2.7 million viewers in that age group, the network said, citing Nielsen.

Discovery Communications Inc.'s eight cable channels that are rated by Nielsen are up 7 percent at 10 p.m. among 18-49 viewers, the Silver Spring, Maryland-based programmer said, without providing details.

NBC, owned by General Electric Co., replaced the 10 p.m. programming to bolster the profitability of its prime-time schedule. The network can produce a full week of Leno for the $2 million to $3 million price of a single hour of drama, according to Brad Adgate, head of research at Horizon Media Inc., an advertising company in New York.

Advertising Rates

The move displaced shows such as "Law & Order: SVU," which got bumped to 9 p.m. on Wednesdays. That show is drawing about 9.4 million viewers in all age groups, vs. 9.27 million for all of last season.

This season at 10 p.m., NBC is down 30 percent in total viewers and 45 percent in 18-49, according to Nielsen data. Leno is averaging 2.25 million viewers a night in 18-49, down from 4.07 million for the time period a year earlier.

Advertising rates for Leno range from $48,803 to $65,678 for a 30-second spot, according to Advertising Age. Last year, NBC was able to secure as much as $146,679 at 10 p.m., the trade publication said on Oct. 26.

Leno's audience exceeds expectations, GE Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin said on an Oct. 16 conference call. The network has said Leno should be judged on a full year of competition, including summer when he will produce new shows and the competition airs reruns. Most dramas run about 22 episodes a season, while Leno will be new 46 of 52 weeks.

GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, rose 52 cents to $15.85 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The company, which is in talks to sell a majority of its NBC Universal division to Comcast Corp., has dropped 2.2 percent this year.

Ratings Leader

CBS gained 57 cents to $13.29, while Burbank, California-based Disney increased 44 cents to $29. News Corp. rose 31 cents to $12.37 on the Nasdaq Stock Market and Discovery added 72 cents to $30.79.

The biggest winner in this year's broadcast ratings race has been New York-based News Corp.'s Fox, which has never programmed 10 p.m. and has led in 18-49 viewers on the strength of "American Idol," which returns each year in January.

Aided by Major League Baseball's World Series and the medical drama "House," Fox's prime-time ratings are up 17 percent from a year ago and 19 percent in the desired age group.

"Fox had it right 20 years ago when they didn't bother" to program 10 p.m., Adgate said. CBS and ABC are probably going to wait and see how the Leno move works before changing their 10 p.m. strategies, he said.

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