As summer closes, campaign season begins

SPRINGFIELD - Back-to-school shopping is likely a higher priority at the moment than 2010 politics for most, but the campaign season has in fact begun, and in just over six months, Illinois voters will head to the primary polls facing a series of choices.

There's a contest for U.S. Senate, governor, attorney general, secretary of state and every other statewide office. Every U.S. representative is on the ballot as are all 118 Illinois House members. In the state Senate, 21 of 59 seats are up.

Two central questions run through virtually all of them:

First: Given the political turmoil in Illinois so far this decade, why would anyone vote for Democrats?

Second: What alternative will Republicans offer?

Those are two questions the respective parties will be trying to resolve this week with their political days at the Illinois State Fair. There's a Democratic rally today followed by the Republican Day on Thursday.

And both questions are key here in the suburbs, where Republicans once established a partisan power base and where Democrats are increasingly usurping that supremacy.

So far, Democratic control has produced an impeached governor awaiting a federal corruption trial and a series of red-ink-soaked budgets, the latest of which borrowed billions of dollars, delayed payments to vendors for months and put off a possible tax hike until next year.

That legacy has Republicans hoping they may have a shot next year at regaining power - if they can get through divisive primaries with a unified message and purpose.

After all, Illinois Democrats were able to wrest control away from the GOP at the turn of the century in large part thanks to scandals that ultimately sent a GOP governor to prison.

Ever since, the GOP has struggled to bridge the gap between moderate party members and social conservatives as Democrats methodically expanded control of the state House and Senate, even helping to put one of their members in the White House.

Palatine state Sen. Matt Murphy, who's seeking the Republican nomination for governor, sees Republicans riding a forceful wave of voter dissatisfaction to electoral victory instead of suffering yet another political wipeout.

"There is great potential for a wavelike election," Murphy said. "I think we can pick up a number of seats, especially if we get the right ticket at the top."

But Republicans temper such enthusiasm with a healthy dose of political reality. The race for governor is crucial for the GOP, because few see much chance of the Illinois House or Senate switching hands. Democrats have 37 of the 59 Illinois Senate seats. Of the 21 on the ballot in 2010, Democrats hold 14. In the House, Democrats have 70 of 118 seats.

While the race for governor has a plethora of candidates, including several suburban politicians, Republicans appear to be on the verge of ceding other statewide offices. DuPage County State's Attorney Joe Birkett opted not to run for attorney general, figuring he'd likely lose to incumbent Democrat Lisa Madigan, who bested him in 2002.

No one in the Republican Party appears eager to take on Democratic Secretary of State Jesse White, one of the state's most popular politicians, who's lately coasted to re-election.

Given GOP infighting, lack of cash and strong candidates down the ballot, Democrats head into campaign season confident.

State Senate President John Cullerton, a Chicago Democrat, said he believes the GOP won't be able to mount an aggressive take-back of the state despite the scandals of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and discontent over proposed tax hikes.

"We kind of benefit somewhat with the dysfunctionality (of the GOP)," Cullerton said. "They are split. They have a real conservative (wing) and moderates who are fighting each other. They don't agree. ... So, they haven't taken advantage."

That is clearly playing out in the Republican primaries for both governor and senator despite attempts by party brass to avoid divisive infighting.

On the U.S. Senate side, Congressman Mark Kirk has faced considerable heat for some of his votes that align with Democrats even as party leaders view his flexibility as a bonus when it comes to a general election in the Democratic-leaning state. Several conservative candidates are making waves about entering the race.

As for governor, Hinsdale Republican state Sen. Kirk Dillard and DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom are fending off accusations by conservative commentator Dan Proft and state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington that they haven't stuck with party principles.

But Democrats may face their own internal cannibalization this year with Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes taking on Gov. Pat Quinn in the primary. Hynes has already tried to tie Quinn to Blagojevich while he takes heat for not backing the Democratic-led tax hike push. At the Senate level, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is likely to face a spirited primary challenge too.

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