Suburban 'superbug' scare just a preview of real threat

Most people believe they are indestructible and immortal. Especially teenagers.

So just because a couple of Naperville high school football players were diagnosed with an antibiotic-resistant infection, don't expect their teammates and friends to heed warnings against sharing towels, razors and water bottles.

The "superbug," known as MRSA for methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureas, has been around for a long time. It used to infect primarily hospital patients. Then, in the 1990s, it began invading prep and pro locker rooms, usually through skin-to-skin contact and the sharing of personal hygiene items.

And just because schools in some states are being shut down and federal health officials expect almost 20,000 people to die this year from MRSA infections (more than from AIDS) don't expect the government to be able to stop it from happening.

But as Ronald Reagan used to end his stump-speeches, "you ain't seen nothin' yet."

The staph outbreak is just a prelude to the coming human sickness that has public health experts as traumatized as Ellen DeGeneres was over her dog adoption. And it has received far, far less attention.

What would you say if someone told you that 99,000 people were going to die from the germ of the future? Not around the world … in Illinois alone.

Not that 99,000 people in Illinois might die from it, but that they will die. Just a matter of when.

That is the preview from public health experts of what is to come when the next, drug resistant, pandemic flu outbreak sweeps the United States.

The Illinois numbers are part of a state-by-state breakdown commissioned by the U.S. Pandemic Preparedness Initiative and released with little fanfare last spring.

The report, researched by the health advocacy group "Trust for America's Health," based its findings on an outbreak as severe as the 1918 American pandemic.

Besides the 99,000 deaths in Illinois, the report projects nearly 3.8 million workers would become sick in our state and have to stay home.

The economic impact of such a modern pandemic on Illinois would be $31.3 billion. That would represent a 5.6 percent drop in the state economy.

According to the report, a severe flu outbreak could plunge the nation into the second worst recession since World War II.

Unlike the staph infection outbreak that is affecting a few communities for a short time here and there, an actual pandemic of the flu would affect everyone everywhere and could last a year and a half composed in waves of six to eight weeks.

What to do? Last week the American Academy of Pediatrics cited some gaps that need to be filled immediately if we are to head-off a deadly flu onslaught against children-who are among the most susceptible.

The AAP reported:

• There are only 100,000 doses of antivirals for children in the Strategic National Stockpile. There are currently 73.6 million children in the U.S.

• A vaccine that is well-matched for a pandemic would not be available for at least six months after a major outbreak begins, and tests would have to be conducted to determine safety levels for children and adults once it is available.

• The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC, recommends that the public consider using a certain respirator mask during a pandemic outbreak; however, those respirator masks are not currently produced in children's sizes.

During a recent White House briefing, Dr. Rajeev Venkayya, special assistant to the president for biodefense, said authorities are certain we will have to deal with a pandemic flu virus or "some other biological threat" within the next 10 years.

"Just to be brutally honest, we have a lot of trouble determining when we have an outbreak of infectious disease in a community here in the United States," Venkayya admitted.

"The question is, 'Will we close the borders?'" he asked. "Our planning approach is to plan to limit the arrival of individuals who might be affected with a pandemic virus."

The real question is whether authorities will ever be able to identify infected travelers.

Homeland Security doesn't have a very impressive track record in this area. A Mexican national infected by a highly contagious form of tuberculosis crossed the U.S. border 76 times last year and flew on numerous domestic flights. Even after federal officials found out about the man, it took them six weeks to do anything, according to The Washington Times.

Airport security screeners can't detect most bombs during tests by government inspectors -- and the screeners have X-ray machines. How will customs officers and border guards possibly be able to stop someone from entering the country with a flu germ in his or her bloodstream?

They can't. Any more than we can stop teenagers from sharing a water bottle.