Will your taxes rise if Blagojevich goes?

SPRINGFIELD - Amid his scandals and criticisms, Gov. Rod Blagojevich has offered a silver lining for suburban anti-tax crusaders. If nothing else, the embattled Democratic governor has largely honored his vow not to raise the state sales or income tax.

But with his tenure atop Illinois government teetering on oblivion along with state finances, his potential departure from the governor's office could open the door for a tax hike.

So in some political circles the question basically boils down to this: Is a beleaguered Blagojevich better than a new governor and the possibility of state tax increases?

"I don't think the voters should be saddled with that Hobson's choice," said Lemont Republican state Sen. Christine Radogno, the incoming GOP leader in the state Senate. In the end, Radogno said she'd prefer to take her chances with a new governor and let the debates fall where they may on tax policy.

Asked the same question, House Republican leader Tom Cross of Oswego was more direct.

"No. We're becoming a laughing stock. Obviously he needs to be removed from office as quickly as possible. We will continue to fight raising taxes at this time no matter who is the governor," said Cross spokesman David Dring.

Other suburban GOP members shared the sentiment.

"I really don't care who's in the mansion, it's the rank and file that needs to realize this (tax increase) would decimate Illinois," said state Rep. Tim Schmitz, a Batavia Republican.

Across the state, the governor's removal - willingly or otherwise - from office is viewed by many as removing a major political hurdle for tax increases. There's no shortage of lawmakers and officials who've supported higher taxes as a way to pay for everything from schools to health care to roads and bridges. Plus, the state's finances are in peril as bills from school, health care providers and other vendors are piling up because the state simply doesn't have the cash flow to pay them.

"Nobody wants more taxes, but when you're looking at a state that's $2 billion in the red, and we haven't gotten any money since July 1, we have to do something," Cheryl Crates, Carpentersville-based Community Unit District 300's chief financial officer, told the Daily Herald after the governor's arrest.

Faced with a promised veto, supporters have so far been unable to round up the votes that would be necessary to override Blagojevich.

If a friendly face were in the governor's office, approval could be far easier. Democrats control the Illinois House and Senate and could, in theory, pass a tax increase without needing a single Republican vote. House Speaker Michael Madigan, a Chicago Democrat, has said he personally could support a tax increase and there's long been support among Senate Democrats.

Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, who would become governor if Blagojevich is ousted, has shown support for tax increases, backing a constitutional amendment in 2004 that would have doubled the state income tax for those making more than $250,000 in order to raise more than a billion dollars for schools and property tax breaks. That plan has not been successful.

To many political observers, it's been surprising that higher taxes have not yet occurred.

When Democrats swept control of state government following the 2002 elections, numerous suburban Republican officials feared what the Chicago interests who had been elevated to positions of power by voters would do to the region.

And while expansion of O'Hare International Airport was approved over suburban objections and Blagojevich did tweak his campaign tax pledge to go along with a regional sales tax hike to bailout mass transit, by and large the Democrat-led doomsday predicted for the suburbs has not occurred for a couple reasons.

First, the region has increasingly elected and re-elected Democrats who've tended to look out for local interests in much the same manner as their Republican predecessors.

Second, the ranking Democrats have been at each others' throats since the day they took office in a political grudge match that has often resulted in daily government grinding to a halt.

Blagojevich even won early praise from suburban conservatives during his first term for his repeated rejection of any efforts to poke holes in tax caps.

Former McHenry County state Rep. Cal Skinner, an ardent tax hater, was among those to begrudgingly compliment the governor's tax cap performance. Asked recently if he'd prefer a scandal-plagued governor who opposes tax hikes to a new, cleaner governor who supports them, Skinner replied: "Tough choice."

"At least Pat Quinn has been to McHenry County," Skinner said via e-mail. "I am not aware that the governor has ever done more than drive through on the tollway for the 2002 Rockford debate."