No go for 'Juno'

When the Oscars get handed out Sunday, only one of them will wind up going to the true best movie of 2007: Jason Reitman's charming comedy "Juno."

Out of its well-deserved four nominations, "Juno" will win only original screenplay for the amazing writer Diablo Cody. Reitman's film will surely lose best picture, director and actress to other nominees -- a travesty of movie justice, if you ask me.

As Oscar-prognosticators know, Academy voters have a history of shunning comedies for the top prize, although they did pick "Shakespeare in Love" in 1998. (It was about a really serious writer.)

MORE COVERAGE Stories List of nominees

"Juno" fans and I will just have to suck it up and endure another one of Hollywood's ultimate American idolized movie awards shows.

Thankfully, the lengthy writers strike was settled last week, so Oscar show producer Gil Cates didn't have to fall back on Plan B: a film clip-stuffed, self-aggrandizing, retrospective-of-the-Academy snooze fest.

Instead, we'll get the usual, glitzy, big-production-number-stuffed snooze fest hosted by TV personality Jon Stewart.

Who will take home those Chicago-made statuettes Sunday? Here's who I predict will win, along with those who actually deserve to win. Since 2007 was a banner year for high-quality movies, I don't really have a beef with the other nominees who will snatch three of the golden guys away from "Juno."

But if "Juno" doesn't at least win best original screenplay, in the words of P.T. Anderson, there will be blood.

Best picture

Will win: "No Country for Old Men."

Those wily Coen brothers finally returned to their "Blood Simple" roots and -- wow! -- have they improved, or what? This nihilistic crime thriller has become an awards locomotive that can't be stopped. Not by "There Will Be Blood." Not even by Superman.

Deserves to win: "Juno."

This stylized comic gem lets us glimpse what the world would be like if people, including teenagers, were smart and funny and compassionate and articulate and took responsibility for all their decisions. A delightful, witty coming-of-age tale that has no chance of winning an Oscar against the "No Country" momentum.

You could argue that "No Country" is better-constructed cinematically and that it's more ambitious than "Juno." Even so, Reitman's serious little comedy sidesteps every clich#233; in the teen romantic comedy playbook. Where "No Country" is all about stopping hearts, "Juno" is all about winning them.

Should have been nominated: "Away From Her." Indie actress Sarah Polley's directorial debut is a poem of elegant realism about the ravages of Alzheimer's disease. It packs all the sadness of "The Notebook" without the gooey sentiment. To make room for this movie, I'd bump out "There Will Be Blood," an ambitious work of great craftsmanship that still left me cold after two screenings.

Best actor

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis.

Day-Lewis is capitalism's darkest metaphor: slithery oil man Daniel Plainfield in P.T. Anderson's "There Will Be Blood." The entire movie hinges on this single performance, a consistently over-the-top, electrifying piece of thespian art that Jack Nicholson would have been delighted to have done in his prime -- while pumped with lots of acting steroids.

Deserves to win: Viggo Mortensen.

Of all the nominees, Mortensen -- the Russian mob driver in David Cronenberg's superb thriller "Eastern Promises" -- shows the greatest range and provides us with a cathartic twist of redemption. Plus, his naked shower knife-attack scene ranks as one of cinema's greatest, most visceral personal combat sequences.

Should have been nominated: Gordon Pinsent or Frank Langella.

Take your choice. Either Pinsent as the adoring, hurting husband of an Alzheimer's patient in the bittersweet "Away From Her," or Langella as the brooding, aging novelist in "Starting Out in the Evening." Either actor should have been given the berth awarded to Tommy Lee Jones for "In the Valley of Elah." Jones may be a great actor, but by now, he can play a smart, down-home, grizzled, veteran Texan lawman in his sleep.

Best actress

Will win: Julie Christie.

Christie, playing an aging woman battling Alzheimer's disease in "Away From Her," picked up a Screen Actors Guild award, a strong harbinger of good fortune. She imbues her character with sympathy and sadness, but she really catches fire during scenes with Pinsent.

Deserves to win: Ellen Page.

I'd give the Oscar to the adorable, understated actress who plays the edgy, pregnant teen in "Juno." Of all the performances in 2007, hers touched me the deepest with her compassion and ability to rise above the din of ordinary expectation.

Should have been nominated: Angelina Jolie.

As the wife of martyred journalist Danny Pearl in "A Mighty Heart," her uncanny re-creation of the real Mrs. Pearl's emotional ordeal surpassed Academy favorite Cate Blanchett's regal reprise in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."

Best supporting actor

Will win: Javier Bardem.

The sociopathic serial killer in "No Country for Old Men," he's won all the major awards up to now, plus everyone (even Academy voters) loves unabashedly evil villains. Let's face it. Bardem is downright bone-chilling. His unstoppable bad man has become the Hannibal Lecter of the new millennium, and Hannibal won an Oscar for Anthony Hopkins.

Deserves to win: Tom Wilkinson.

As the conscience-stricken attorney in "Michael Clayton," the British thespian provides the heart and soul for Tony Gilroy's bleak examination of legal ethics and makes the character so genuine and authentic, nobody thinks he's acting. Why do Academy voters always tend to give awards to the bad guys?

Deserved to be nominated: Jeremy Sisto.

Sisto played his controlling, abusive husband in "Waitress" with such subtle, chilling veracity, I don't think the role could have been played as well by anyone else. He should have bumped out Philip Seymour Hoffman's nod as the loose cannon CIA agent in "Charlie Wilson's War." The role, pre-stuffed with scene-stealing bombast, was hardly Hoffman's best work of the year.

Best supporting actress

Will win: Ruby Dee.

For her role as mobster Denzel Washington's mother in "American Gangster," she won the SAG award, a harbinger of things to come. Plus, her many years of unrecognized work may factor in as a de facto lifetime achievement award, although Academy voters have steered clear of this kind of voting in recent years.

Deserves to win: Tilda Swinton.

Her portrait of a highly educated, utterly soulless big-company executive in "Michael Clayton" made my skin crawl, thanks to Swinton's perfectly nuanced mixture of insecure desperation and affectation of cool, corporate killer instinct.

Should have been nominated: Jennifer Garner.

Garner shows real acting chops as the brittle, anxious, adoptive mother in "Juno." This contained character is the opposite of her action-oriented roles that made her famous. Of the five nominees, I'd bump the winner, Ruby Dee, to make room for Garner. Nothing against Dee, but she has the slightest character of the nominees and received her nod for a single scene where she slaps Denzel Washington.

Animated feature

Will win: "Ratatouille."

A culinary rat guides a nervous young French chef to greatness in Brad Bird's film.

Deserves to win: "Ratatouille."

Should have been nominated: No one else.

Sorry, Homer Simpson. The Academy did a gangbusters job of nominations in the animation category this year. I'm just happy the Academy didn't nominate "Beowulf," which still looks like "Invasion of the Animated Wax Museum Figures" to me.

Best director

Will win: The Coen brothers, Joel and Ethan.

They adapted Cormac McCarthy's nihilistic novel to the silver screen with nary a nihilism missing.

Deserves to win: The Coens.

They've earned this. After all, how many directors can channel Hitchcock and Peckinpah and make it all work with Josh Brolin's mustache?

Should have been nominated: No one else.

The five nominees are supremely qualified. Some critics might argue that Joe Wright should have been nominated for "Atonement" (which earned a nod for best picture), but Julian Schnabel's visionary work on "The Diving Bell the Butterfly" deserves his nomination. Besides, "Atonement" is the most traditional, conservative Academy movie up for the big brass enchilada, and just a few years ago, would have cinched the Oscar like "Titanic" or "The Last Emperor."

"The 80th Academy Awards"

7:30 p.m. Sunday on ABC-7

Red carpet coverage:

bull; 7 p.m. on ABC-7

bull; 5 p.m. on E! with Ryan Seacrest and Giuliana Rancic

bull; 5 p.m. on TV Guide Network with Lisa Rinna and Joey Fatone