Grammys turn 50

Part popularity contest, part marketing juggernaut, part tabloid event, the Grammy Award telecast is another one of those annual pop culture events that works on many different levels but remains a spectacle worth watching.

This year, the Grammys turn 50, a milestone that arrives at a perilous time for the recording industry. While overall music sales were up in 2007 by 14 percent, according to Nielsen SoundScan, overall album sales dropped by 15 percent, almost the same rate. Consumers are buying older titles more than they are new artists, and digital singles far exceed sales of complete albums, either online or at brick-and-mortar stores.

Many reasons account for the shift in consumer tastes. Much of the blame comes from the industry, which continues to market just a handful of artists aimed at reaching the widest audience, not creating groundbreaking music.

This is why the top sellers of 2007 include a Christmas album, an "American Idol" reject and a Disney star for tweens. In the major categories that receive the most television time, the Grammys reflect this dilution, which is why the telecast is now mostly an entertainment show filled with extravagant production numbers designed for commercial success rather than artistic achievement.

Here is a rundown of the top categories, plus a quick peek at others that, while not televised, reflect a more diverse overview of the music released last year.

Record of the Year

"Irreplaceable"

Beyoncé

Beyoncé Knowles, S. Smith and Stargate, producers; Jim Caruana, Jason Goldstein and Geoff Rice, engineers/mixers

"The Pretender"

Foo Fighters

Gil Norton, producer; Adrian Bushby and Rich Costey, engineers/mixers

"Umbrella"

Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z

Kuk Harrell, Terius "The Dream" Nash and C. "Tricky" Stewart, producers; Kuk Harrell and Manny Marroquin, engineers/mixers

"What Goes Around…Comes Around"

Justin Timberlake

Nate (Danja) Hills, Timbaland and Justin Timberlake, producers; Jimmy Douglass and Timbaland, engineers/mixers

"Rehab"

Amy Winehouse

Mark Ronson, producer; Tom Elmhirst, Vaughan Merrick, Dom Morley, Mark Ronson & Gabriel Roth, engineers/mixers

Lift the needle: An overall production award, record of the year goes to the entire team that worked to make sure you stay interested for three-plus minutes. Every year, this category rewards success as it is usually occupied by radio hits -- here represented by tracks by Justin Timberlake, Beyonce and the duet between Rihanna and Jay-Z. The black sheep contender is "The Pretender," a standard epic screamer by Foo Fighters, a band that, while still commercially viable, has already reached its creative peak. Sunday-night viewers should hope for a win by Amy Winehouse due to a life story you can't make up: The song is a tart refusal to check into rehab. Three weeks ago, she announced that, yes, she will.

Who'll win: "What Goes Around…Comes Around" by Britney's former beau. He's safe, he's retro, he's tabloid-free and, most importantly, his music crisscrosses generations, leaving no one unsatisfied.

Album of the Year

"Echoes, Silence, Patience and Grace"

Foo Fighters

"These Days"

Vince Gill

"River: The Joni Letters"

Herbie Hancock

"Graduation"

Kanye West

Back To Black"

Amy Winehouse

Lift the needle: This unorthodox grouping makes this year's category the most exciting in years. Each major genre of music is represented -- hip-hop, rock, jazz, country and R&B. Foo Fighters is the popular choice and representative of how the major labels have successfully cut most rock bands from their rosters, favoring shifting radio formats that feature mostly hip-hop and R&B. Even though the band's recent album is far from its best, the mainstream industry has so few contenders it will have to do. This category, as usual, includes albums that might not be the artists' best, but make up for longstanding career indifference or missed opportunities. Case in point: Kanye West's third album, a Joni Mitchell cover album by Herbie Hancock and a four-CD collection from Vince Gill.

A win for Winehouse would be more about her tabloid drama of recent months, not necessarily the music.

Who'll win: Herbie Hancock, who made a predictable soft jazz album with shades of Norah Jones. It's easy to sell at corporate coffeehouses and market worldwide. That said, I'd like to see the award go to Gill, who received the nod to make an album spanning four CDs and 43 new songs. He is now officially the Prince of country music and should be awarded for sheer tenacity.

Song of the Year

"Before He Cheats"

Josh Kear & Chris Tompkins, songwriters (Carrie Underwood)

"Hey There Delilah"

Tom Higgenson, songwriter (Plain White T's)

"Like A Star"

Corinne Bailey Rae, songwriter (Corinne Bailey Rae)

"Rehab"

Amy Winehouse, songwriter (Amy Winehouse)

"Umbrella"

Shawn Carter, Kuk Harrell, Terius "Dream" Nash & Christopher Stewart,

songwriters (Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z)

Lift the needle: Woe to the songwriters who share this category with British sensation Amy Winehouse. "Rehab" is the song that will outlast all of the above, not just for the true tale that accompanies the songwriter and singer behind it, but because it is a premier slice of slinky R&B, with a lyric that can't be forgotten. Like every great song, this one has major personality and a unique perspective, which can't be said of the remaining contenders in this category -- the tween favorite by Chicago's Plain White T's and other predictable entries by American Idol's Carrie Underwood, the British soul singer Corinne Bailey Rae and Rihanna and Jay-Z's "Umbrella." While these songs penetrated their respective radio formats and became signature songs of the year, they all are disposable packages of mostly serviceable songwriting.

Who'll win: Amy Winehouse's "Rehab," although "Umbrella" is a satisfying second choice, if just for the Jay-Z hook that made it one of contemporary R&B's best songs this year.

Best new artist

Feist

Ledisi

Paramore

Taylor Swift

Amy Winehouse

Lift the needle: Typically, this Grammy category is populated by artists who have worked long and hard at their careers, made successive albums, enjoyed critical acclaim and then, years later, are considered "new" by the recording academy. This year is no different. Canadian singer Leslie Feist became known as a member of By Divine Right and Broken Social Scene, two of the country's best-loved indie pop bands, for years until releasing her first solo album in 1999. To Grammy voters, she is being recognized for her third album, which happened to come out on Interscope. In this category she is competing alongside Paramore, an indistinguishable Warped Tour band; Nashville lovely Taylor Swift, who earned notice with a novelty song namechecking Tim McGraw; and Ledisi, a neo-soul singer from New Orleans.

Who'll win: Amy Winehouse is the best-known name of the group, and considering that her tabloid antics resulted in big sales of her major label debut -- the second most digitally sold album of 2007 -- she is likely to receive recognition. Which is unfortunate considering the more psychologically complex R&B album and singer is "Lost & Found" (Verve) from Ledisi.

50th Annual Grammy Awards

When: 7 p.m. Sunday

Catch it: WBBM-TV Channel 2, XM Satellite Radio, grammy.com, Westwood One radio

Local event: The Chicago chapter of the Recording Academy is hosting a viewing party, 6 to 10:30 p.m. Sunday at the Hard Rock Café, 63 W. Ontario, Chicago. Admission includes the live Grammy telecast, hors d'oeuvres, open bar, raffles and an official program book. (312) 785-1316.

Presenters: Natalie Cole, Juanes, Cyndi Lauper, Bette Midler, Bonnie Raitt and more

Performers: The casts of the live stage show "The Beatles Love By Cirque Du Soleil" and the film "Across the Universe," Feist, Alicia Keys, Brad Paisley, Beyoncé, Foo Fighters (with special guest conductor John Paul Jones of Led Zeppelin), Carrie Underwood, Aretha Franklin, Mary J. Blige, the Clark Sisters, Israel And New Breed, and Trin-I-Tee 5:7 in a special gospel segment, and Rihanna with a reunited the Time in a special 50th anniversary segment