Clearing the fog: Breaking down the playoff bracket from all angles

The football playoff pairing are out, and to start with the obvious, they are much larger than ever before.

The IHSA expanded the field and added another round. Now there are 48 teams per class, the top 16 seeds get byes, and there are 2-7 teams in the playoffs, 18 of them.

There's always a tendency to complain about change, but this is nothing to get worked up about. The nine-week high school football season passes quickly, so stretching it out a bit is not a big deal.

Most teams will appreciate being able to play another game, maybe get to the playoffs for the first time in a while, maybe have a chance to win. It's easy to argue that certain teams don't belong in the playoffs, but there are others that were stuck in tough conferences, recovered from slow starts or began the season with young players in the lineup.

In other words — don't worry about it, everything's fine. By the time we get to the round of 16, it shouldn't look much different from the 32-team brackets of the past.

So let's break down this 384-team monster, from all angles.

Team you don't want to face: Let's cop out and go with the entire CCL Green Division. These teams generally played brutal schedules this fall and as a result, are battle-tested and sitting among the lower seeds. St. Rita (6-3) won the division and is in 7A, while St. Francis (4-5) and Nazareth (4-5) will be dangerous in 5A and 6A, respectively.

Honorable mention is Wheaton Warrenville South (6A), which finished third in the DuKane with a junior-heavy lineup.

On a roll: York (8A) finished the campaign by beating the top three teams in the West Suburban Silver — Downers North, Glenbard West and Lyons — by a combined 7 points. The Dukes did not get an opening-round bye.

Barrington (8A) won five straight after an 0-4 start and won the MSL West, while using four quarterbacks due to injuries. The Broncos are also bound for the opening round.

Libertyville (6A) won seven straight after starting with losses to Geneva and Naperville North. The North Suburban wasn't quite up to its usual standards, so it will be interesting to see how the Wildcats stack up against the ranked teams in 6A.

Best opening-round games: Warren at Naperville Central (8A), Stevenson at Lockport (8A), Palatine at Yorkville (7A), Glenbard North at Hoffman Estates (7A), St. Charles East at Elk Grove (6A), Grayslake Central at Deerfield (5A).

Most difficult quadrant: The answers is probably in 8A, with Mount Carmel, Sandburg, Marist and Barrington in the same six-team bracket. But there's a sneaky tough grouping in 6A with Geneva, Wheaton North, Addison Trail and Carmel.

Let's move to break down individual brackets next. Keep in mind, the IHSA is calling next week the opening round, which will be followed by Round 1, Round 2, etc.

Class 8A

Team to beat: Well, Mount Carmel finally looked like the ultratalented team we were expecting this season against Loyola on Friday. Add in the four straight state titles and this has to be the team to beat.

Tough break: Marist (5-4) took its lumps in the CCL Blue, now if the Redhawks beat Neuqua Valley in the opening around, the reward is a rematch with Mount Carmel.

Dream matchup: Lincoln-Way East vs. Mount Carmel in the quarterfinals would be a colossal pairing. The Griffins beat Brother Rice in Week 1 and have been dominant since then, outside of a narrow win against Kankakee.

A potential intriguing matchup in Round 2 would be fast-finishing York against Loyola.

Bold prediction: No. 2 seed Huntley will reach the semifinals, against either Maine South, Loyola or St. Ignatius.

Class 7A

Team to beat: It's got to be East St. Louis or Brother Rice. Flip a coin. East St. Louis beat Mount Carmel in Week 1, lost to Florida power American Heritage in Week 2, and crushed every downstate opponent. Brother Rice lost to Lincoln-Way East and Loyola.

Tough break: Elgin gets an opening-round home game and can beat Reavis, but the reward is a trip to East St. Louis. At the same time, the Maroons' last playoff victory was actually against East St. Louis in 2000.

Dream matchup: So many good potential second-round matchups — Brother Rice vs. Batavia, Glenbard West vs. Hersey, Downers Grove North vs. St. Rita.

Bold prediction: There will be a Hersey vs. Downers Grove North semifinal, matching the best offense in the suburbs (east of the Fox River) against the best defense (north of the Stevenson Expressway).

Class 6A

Team to beat: It's got to be Geneva. The Vikings ran the table in a tough DuKane Conference and averaged 43.3 points per game. Defending 6A champ Fenwick is a top contender, but 6A runner-up East St. Louis asked to play in 7A this time.

Tough break: The north side of this bracket definitely seems tougher than the south side. Chicago Kennedy is the top seed in the south half and didn't play in the Public League's Red Division, reserved for the better teams.

Dream matchup: Geneva vs. Fenwick could happen in the quarterfinals. There would be speed on display if Geneva receiver Bennett Konkey squares off against Fenwick running back/safety Jake Theiss.

Bold prediction: Both Libertyville and Wheaton Warrenville South reach the semifinals.

Class 5A

Team to beat: It should be Providence, which lost a heartbreaker to St. Francis in last year's 5A title game. But the Celtics fired their head coach in the middle of the season, got blown out by St. Ignatius in Week 9 and is the No. 11 seed in the south half, so no bye. Another team to watch is undefeated Mahomet-Seymour, which dominated every team it played, but can the Bulldogs beat Chicago teams?

Tough break: High on the list of teams you don't want to draw is St. Francis. The Spartans will open against Grayslake North, then would move on to face 8-1 Kaneland in the first round.

Dream matchup: The most interesting part of his bracket is at the bottom, where Kankakee and Providence could play in the first round, with maybe Public League champ Morgan Park waiting in the next round.

Bold prediction: Antioch gets to the semifinals, possibly against St. Francis.

For 3A and 4A, let's keep it to one category.

Class 4A, most intriguing title game potential: Montini vs. Rochester. Sure, there are other contenders here, but Rochester has been on Chicagoland's radar since a mind-boggling 44-16 win over Batavia in Week 2. Montini, meanwhile, has a high-powered offense led by Miami commit Izzy Abrams.

It would be a fascinating game, but Rochester did lose to Springfield Sacred-Heart Griffin in Week 8. Montini dropped close games to Sandburg and St. Rita. Montini vs. undefeated Morris in Round 2 could be a great game.

Class 3A, safest prediction: IC Catholic Prep wins the 3A title. Not trying to jinx anyone, but it's hard to believe there's a more talented team out there. The Knights held a fourth-quarter lead against Class 8A power Loyola, beat St. Ignatius. There are a couple of 3A unbeatens in Northern Illinois — Richmond-Burton and defending state champ Byron, so we'll see.