Palencia could be a postseason game-changer in the Cubs’ bullpen
Daniel Palencia couldn’t stop smiling Sunday.
After eight weeks on the injured list, the Cubs reliever had just come off his best outing in the past month Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds. Palencia consistently hit triple digits on the radar gun again and showed the type of dominance out of the bullpen the team came to expect last year.
Palencia tossed two perfect innings and struck out three of the six batters he faced in Saturday’s victory. It was an emphatic — and timely — step in the right direction, one he had been building toward in his 10 appearances since he returned from the IL on Aug. 21. His fastball averaged 99.5 mph and topped out at 100.6 mph versus the Reds.
“I’ve been feeling in a good spot with a lot of confidence right now,” Palencia said Sunday. “I wasn’t trying to throw hard (Saturday). When I saw the (velocity), I was like, ‘OK, I’m feeling good.’
“Just confidence and trying to execute my pitches. I feel like myself. I’m just trying to be me.”
With six games remaining in the regular season, manager Craig Counsell’s focus will center largely on the bullpen. The Cubs can clinch a wild-card playoff berth Tuesday night with a victory over the Miami Marlins or if the Arizona Diamondbacks lose to the Colorado Rockies.
“I really believe that through this last week of the season, we’ve got to find out about our bullpen,” Counsell said. “We’ve got to find out about guys down there, and this was a good step in that direction.”
It’s an understandable focal point for the Cubs. They entered Monday’s day off ranked 28th in bullpen fWAR at a paltry minus-0.8, while the relievers’ 3.91 ERA puts them in the middle of the pack (14th in MLB).
Injuries have forced the Cubs to get creative with roles at times as their offseason relief signings largely didn’t pan out. They got only four innings out of Hunter Harvey in April before a lingering triceps issue sidelined him for the season.
Phil Maton’s reoccurring knee problem, eventually diagnosed as a partially torn patellar tendon, resulted in season-ending debridement surgery this month. Signed to a two-year deal, he’ll look to bounce back in 2027 from his 6.18 ERA in 31 appearances.
Hoby Milner’s emergency appendectomy resulted in him being the odd man out by the time he was ready to return in August, with the Cubs opting to stick with their other two lefties, Caleb Thielbar and Ryan Rolison.
Jacob Webb, inked to a two-year deal in the offseason that’s paying him $1.5 million this year, leads the Cubs with nine saves. If he doesn’t record another, the Cubs would become just the fifth team since saves became an official stat in 1969 to make the postseason without a 10-save pitcher, according to Elias Sports Bureau, joining the 2022 Tampa Bay Rays, 1987 Detroit Tigers, 1982 California Angels and 1973 Baltimore Orioles. It would mark the first time since 1971 that the Cubs haven’t had a pitcher record double-digit saves in a non-shortened season.
Palencia’s early-season oblique injury and two-month absence due to a flexor strain thwarted what likely would have been a strong season for the right-hander. His outing Saturday is exactly what the Cubs need to see from the Venezuelan headed into — and during — the playoffs.
“That’s the Danny Palencia we know,” catcher Carson Kelly said. “When you have an extended period of time out, it takes a little bit to get your feet back (under) you. And for him, (Saturday) was big. The velocity of the heater, the way it was coming out, the breaking balls he was throwing — everything was really sharp.”
Beyond the improved velocity, perhaps the greatest indicator of Palencia’s confidence level came on the one splitter he threw during his 20-pitch outing, deploying it with an 0-2 count to Reds star Elly De La Cruz and freezing him for strike three looking. Palencia hasn’t used his splitter much this year (6% usage) but had no qualms going to it in that big spot.
“It shows the maturity and the growth that he’s had,” Kelly said of that moment. “I mean, he’s 26, so he’s still young, but you’re seeing him make these strides. And as a player, every year if you continue to make these little strides, you get the whole package.”
Getting that version of Palencia down the stretch would be a game-changer for the Cubs and their high-leverage bullpen options.
“That’s why you want to get guys out there as much as you can so you’re not making decisions on one outing,” Counsell said. “I mean, we shouldn’t do that. When you get to later in the season, the recency stuff matters a little more, but also the body of work doesn’t disappear.
“We’ve got some guys with really good bodies of work and we’ve got some really talented players that you trust.”