Five questions heading into the Bears’ season opener

It’s officially game week. The Bears take on the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in the 2026 season opener.

Six months of speculation, projections and what-ifs are about to come to a close. It’s time to see real results on the football field. Expectations are high for coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams after the Bears won the NFC North last year. Can they meet those expectations this season?

Here are five pressing questions facing the Bears before the opener.

1. Sportsbooks have the Bears win total over/under at 9½. So what say you? Over or under?

Biggs: That’s a tough one because, as we sit here a day before the NFL season kicks off, the schedule sets up to be more challenging than it was a year ago.

There are back-to-back games against the Super Bowl LX participants — the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks — in Weeks 7-8. At least the Bears will have a long week to prepare for the trip to Seattle. The Thanksgiving game in Detroit starts a gauntlet in which the Bears face the Lions twice plus the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers in a six-week stretch.

I’ll go over and say the Bears get to 10 wins, but it will require improvement all the way around — and of course the wild card for all teams is health. They showed a knack for pulling out tight games in 2025, and if that carries over, they will have a chance. But there’s a reason that this number is at 9½ and that sportsbooks have shaded it to the under.

Hammond: As Johnson himself said, the Bears are the biggest regression candidate, right? He said it with a bit of a smirk, I’ll note. That said, I’m also going with the over. I could see this team finishing right where it did last year at 11-6.

Johnson’s coaching staff inspires more confidence in its problem-solving ability than any recent Bears staff. They did that last year with injuries in the secondary and when Rome Odunze missed time. The Bears undoubtedly will face challenges this season, but they found ways to work around them last year and I don’t see why that should change.

Thompson: Very sneaky, Las Vegas. I have them at 10 wins, so the over/under seems on point. I took the conservative approach and counted losses to the Philadelphia Eagles, Patriots and Seahawks, though the Bears certainly can pull off at least one upset. I also split their division games.

And even with a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (a big maybe), there are very winnable matchups against the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. The rest are the likes of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.

2. Will Caleb Williams become the first Bears QB to throw for 4,000 yards in a season?

Biggs: If Williams plays in all 17 games — or even 16 — he should get there. If he can make even modest gains in accuracy and the Bears don’t leave as much yardage on the field with drops as they did a year ago, it ought to be a cinch.

Of course, it probably should have been a cinch at least a couple of times in the last 40 years. It’s truly one of the wild statistical anomalies in all of professional sports that the Bears haven’t gotten there yet.

Hammond: This will be the year. Based on everything we saw during training camp, I have confidence the Bears offense will be able to move the ball.

I’m less confident in the defense, but purely from a statistical standpoint, that could be a good thing for Williams. The Bears could find themselves in some shootouts this year. Johnson’s offense can win shootouts.

Williams fell just 58 yards shy of 4,000 a year ago. He doesn’t need much improvement to get there.

Thompson: For sure — if he plays all 17 games. The strength of schedule — and a questionable Bears defense — points to Williams airing out the ball at least as much as last season, when he ranked fifth with 568 passing attempts.

Mind you, Williams was new to Johnson’s offense and still put up 3,942 yards with 6.9 yards per attempt (tied for 20th among qualifiers, per NFL Pro) and a 58.1% completion percentage (32nd among qualifiers). Now Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III have a year of experience, and Odunze and rookie Zavion Thomas will be field stretchers.

3. Who finishes the season with more receiving yards: Rome Odunze or Luther Burden III?

Biggs: Both should be poised to have very productive seasons. It seems like nine out of 10 Bears fans probably would choose Burden right now. Where most folks are going to zig, I’ll go ahead and zag and say Odunze.

Johnson recently referred to Odunze as “Mr. Consistency,” and if his play reflects that, he’ll have a chance to lead what should be a competitive situation for the most receiving yards. Before his foot injury last season (through the first seven games), Odunze was on pace for 1,149 yards.

This shouldn’t be construed as a knock on Burden. With Loveland, the Bears could easily have three guys with 850 or more receiving yards.

Hammond: Really it doesn’t matter as long as the Bears move the ball and score points. But I’ll make the argument for why it will be Burden.

DJ Moore played 84.8% of the offensive snaps last year. Burden, even after playing more frequently down the stretch, played only 34.8% of the snaps for the season. If he stays healthy, that number should double easily.

Burden led the Bears with 0.25 targets per route run, per Sumer Sports. In other words, when he was on the field, he was getting the ball. In fact, his targets per route run tied for 16th in the NFL among receivers who ran at least 100 routes last season — right there with Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins and A.J. Brown. I’m buying that a big year is coming from Burden.

Thompson: I think Loveland will lead the team, but that isn’t what this question is asking. My first inclination is to buy Burden stock, primarily because he’s already an elite route runner. His 4.6 yards of average target separation led all qualified wide receivers last season.

But his air yards per target, 7.3, was about half of Odunze’s 14.1. If Williams spreads the ball around as much as expected, it might be difficult for Burden to gain a target advantage significant enough to overtake Odunze’s likely edge in yards per catch.

4. True or false: The Bears defensive line is better than it was a year ago.

Biggs: Well, it’s different. The Bears moved on from big bodies Gervon Dexter Sr. and Andrew Billings in the middle, and they have players they believe better fit Dennis Allen’s scheme with the ability to penetrate and be disruptive at the point of attack.

It’s a nod to Kentavius Street that Allen singled him out as one of the best performers in training camp. It’s also reason to be somewhat skeptical about the unit when a 30-year-old journeyman is the guy who stood out. The bar is set pretty low with how the Bears played last year versus the run and rushing the quarterback. I hate to cop out, but I’m going to have to see it to believe it.

There’s a chance the Bears are better up front. They’ve changed some of their technique, and provided Austin Booker is healthy for a full season, that should help. But there are a lot of questions and if you’re blindly saying “true” right now, you’re probably relying on a big dose of hope. Of course, if general manager Ryan Poles swings a big trade at some point during the season, the narrative could change. Whether that happens, I have no idea.

Hammond: I’ll be a little more blunt about it and say false. Like Biggs pointed out, it’s different. Different doesn’t necessarily mean better. The hope is the line is better against the run, but that will rely on a mostly new cast of characters at defensive tackle. I agree that I need to see it to believe it.

Booker could be the breakout star of this group, and if he is, the Bears will have a much easier time creating pressure. Maybe a faster secondary will give the big guys up front more time. But that’s another area where there’s some hope involved.

Thompson: I don’t see enough change to say this is true, not with the information we have. So I have to say false.

The Bears have staked their hopes on “coaching better” to get more from the pass rush. When the late John Teerlinck joined the Indianapolis Colts as a defensive line coach, he revolutionized the pass rush and developed several of the league’s best edges. Who’s going to be that kind of catalyst for the Bears?

They have the same staff coaching mostly the same players at defensive end in the same system as last season. Can coaching better technique, by itself, significantly improve a pass rush? We’ll see.

5. Fill in the blank: If the Bears are going to match or improve on what they did last year — 11 wins and the divisional round — it will be because of ____________.

Biggs: To me, it’s about advancing deeper in the postseason. The Bears gained tremendous experience last season in winning a playoff game and then battling the Los Angeles Rams as they did in the divisional round. It’s great to have that in the bank.

If they improve on an inspiring 2025 season, it will be because the offense is significantly sharper, the defense continues to generate takeaways while shoring up the run defense and the special teams generate an edge most weeks. Health will have to play a huge factor, too, especially on the offensive line, which is a critical component to making the machine go.

Williams looks like he’s poised to take a step forward and needs to prove he’s willing to take the easy plays when they’re there with more frequency.

Hammond: Williams’ importance goes without saying. But I’ll point to the defense and bring it back to the previous question — if the Bears are better up front, they will have a better chance of advancing to the NFC championship game and beyond. The offense can’t do this alone.

A modest improvement against the run would work wonders. If Booker emerges as a double-digit sack player opposite Montez Sweat and someone emerges as a true force at defensive tackle, this could become the type of defensive line that opponents fear. Until the Bears prove they have that, I’m not sure this is a Super Bowl team.

Thompson: Williams has to be a lot more consistent and lead the offense to do the same. His second-quarter completion rate (53.8%) was the lowest of any quarter (fourth quarter was 56.4%), and his passer rating was drastically lower: 79.2 in the second versus 94.3 in the fourth.

As an offense, the Bears scored nine touchdowns in the second quarter and 17 in the fourth. They were leaving points on the table before halftime, something they can’t afford to repeat with this year’s schedule. And that matters even more in the playoffs.