This next month is all about the Cubs figuring out who they can trust in their bullpen

PHOENIX — The Chicago Cubs had just absorbed their third walk-off defeat in five days as Daniel Palencia rose from the chair at his locker and turned to face a small group of reporters inside Chase Field’s visiting clubhouse.

Palencia, an emotional player, seemed shaken by more than just Tuesday night’s 5-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The high-octane reliever had unleashed a 98.5 mph fastball that drilled Jordan Lawlar’s helmet and knocked him to the ground.

After that unnerving scene in the eighth inning, the Diamondbacks rallied for three two-out runs off Palencia, who had already lost his job as Chicago’s closer after two separate stints on the injured list.

“Stuff happens,” Palencia said. “You’re always going to have stuff in your life. It just depends on how you take it. I think something’s bad when you don’t learn from it. Tonight’s a night to learn. It’s just being ready for tomorrow.”

It’s essential for a major-league reliever to have a short memory. Figuring out who can be trusted in the biggest moments will be a project for Cubs manager Craig Counsell and his coaching staff over the final month of the season.

So much will happen over these next 28 games. Players can wear down, bounce back and make adjustments. The performances of relievers are inherently volatile. The key is peaking at the right time.

Remember, Palencia looked like he suffered a serious injury when he walked off the Wrigley Field mound last September, only to recover quickly from a strained right shoulder and become a standout in the playoffs.

Counsell didn’t sound alarmed by Palencia’s recent outing in Phoenix, his second appearance since being activated after a two-month layoff due to right elbow inflammation. Palencia said everything feels fine, and he was one strike away from a scoreless inning until Gabriel Moreno’s fluky check-swing double.

“We’ve seen this with multiple guys coming off the injured list and extended absences,” Counsell said. “You’re just not your best self when you come off the list. You get into major-league competition to get to that place.”

With that in mind, the Cubs could take a longer view of the situation. The club enters this weekend seven games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central, but with playoff probabilities hovering around the 98th percentile, according to the various public projection systems.

Jacob Webb has exceeded all expectations since he signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract last winter. But assigning him to get four outs — like the Cubs did when he replaced Palencia on Tuesday night — is not ideal.

Webb, of course, gets the benefit of the doubt after a streak of 24 consecutive shutout appearances that began on June 24. But his last two outings ended with Seattle Mariners All-Star Randy Arozarena and Arizona’s Ryan Waldschmidt hitting sliders for walk-off homers.

“Put up 24 scoreless outings in a row, you’re going to get beat,” Counsell said. “And we gave him a tough job, too.”

This is another small sample, but Ryan Zeferjahn hasn’t immediately turned into the impactful reliever the Cubs expected when they acquired the 6-foot-5 right-hander from the Los Angeles Angels, giving up Opening Day designated hitter Moisés Ballesteros and pitching prospect Mason McGwire at the trade deadline.

Considering how often Cubs officials have cited the unpredictability of bullpens as a reason to invest resources in other parts of the roster, that seemed like a steep price to pay. Zeferjahn has given up at least one run in five of his nine appearances as a Cub, and it already appears as if Counsell is trying to get him opportunities in lower-pressure spots.

Throughout September, trial and error will be part of the process.

Ben Brown’s recent setback while dealing with a chronic neck injury does not bode well for his chances to return in time for the playoffs. It’s also a reminder of how narrow the runway is for Justin Steele in his comeback attempt.

The Cubs will see if Edward Cabrera can get past this recurring blister issue and maximize his stuff in shorter bursts out of the bullpen.

Shelby Miller, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, has pushed his rehab to the point where’s working at Triple-A Iowa. If he can prove that he can make back-to-back appearances and handle the workload, then he could become an X-factor.

Jaxon Wiggins is an intriguing prospect for the future, but the Triple-A right-hander is not on the major-league radar.

It hasn’t clicked for Caleb Thielbar this season, though the 39-year-old lefty did post a 0.00 small-sample ERA during the 2025 playoffs (five appearances). Ryan Rolison (offseason waiver claim) and Trent Thornton (minor-league deal) validated the organization’s strategy of building depth and churning through options, but neither reliever has pitched in the postseason before.

The Cubs also have the spillover from a full rotation strengthened by the trade-deadline additions of Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes. Counsell and his coaches can identify matchups and moments for swingmen such as Aaron Civale, Colin Rea and Javier Assad.

And Chicago can get creative with David Peterson, who was acquired from the New York Mets to stabilize the rotation this summer. The lefty has already demonstrated that he can be an effective starter or multi-inning reliever.

“My whole goal is to help this team win in any way possible,” Peterson said. “Whatever that role is, I’m going to take the ball and be ready for that opportunity.”

Before Counsell signed his five-year, $40 million contract, he signaled to Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer that he did not view the job as merely running the bullpen. It would be a partnership with the front office, collaborating across different departments to create a perennial playoff contender.

But what everyone can see on TV is the manager on the phone in the dugout, walking out to the mound to change pitchers and answering questions about his decisions in the postgame media sessions.

“Major League Baseball teaches you really fast that you got to think about the game for a little bit,” Counsell said, “and then you cut the cord with that and move on to the next day.”

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