Why is beef so expensive? And can consumers expect lower prices anytime soon? ‘It’s got to get worse before it gets better.’

A quick stop at the grocery store, your local hot dog stand or favorite Italian beef spot and you may experience some genuine sticker shock.

Almost $8.50 for a pound of ground beef? $6.99 for a Chicago dog? $13.65 for an Italian beef?

It’s not just you. Beef prices are rising. And rapidly.

Average prices are up nearly 13% in the last year, with a pound of ground beef now costing $6.75 nationwide, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the Midwest, prices are even steeper, kissing $7 per pound.

The cost of ground beef has already surpassed all-time highs twice this year, and cattle ranchers and beef market experts alike doubt it’ll be the last.

The historically high prices seen this year are the result of a combination of economic and environmental factors — from inflation and a labor shortage to drought and disease. All contribute to one bottom line: less beef.

Meanwhile, demand has never been higher, and as the summer grilling season heats up, that demand is only likely to increase.

“There’s a beef shortage. I mean, that’s the simplest way I can say it,” said Cliff McConville, the founder of All Grass Farms, a family farm based in Dundee that raises cattle and other livestock.

Americans are paying the price for that shortage in the form of higher grocery bills and restaurant costs.

“I think the general consumer, the person who goes to Jewel or Mariano’s to buy a package of meat, doesn’t realize the cattle shortage,” said Lisa Drucker, the co-owner of Superdawg Drive-In. “That has not really been publicized.”

Environmental factors

Lower domestic beef production is the result of a shrinking U.S. cattle herd — with the total head of cattle, calves and beef cows declining for seven consecutive years.

“We’re in a very unique situation in the cattle industry right now. We’re at multidecade lows,” said Derrell Peel, a livestock marketing specialist with the Department of Agricultural Economics at Oklahoma State University.

The national cattle inventory is currently at a 75-year low, per the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s latest report. Further, the number of beef cows, specifically, is the lowest it’s been since 1961, and the total 2025 calf crop dropped another 2% year-over-year to lows not seen since the 1940s. The latter, in particular, spells trouble.

Put simply, fewer calves and cows means less beef, and less beef translates to higher prices in the grocery aisle.

So why exactly is the herd population so low? Agricultural specialists and cattle farmers agree that climate and the environment play a big role.

“To some extent that domestic inventory is a result of environmental conditions that nobody can control,” said McConville.

Namely, drought.

Severe drought in the western and southwestern parts of the country have been a persistent issue for decades. More recently, the Plains have been hit by extreme drought.

“We’ve had quite a bit of drought out West, and out West has the larger numbers of cattle,” said Teresa Steckler, a beef specialist with the University of Illinois’ College of Agriculture. “In southwest Nebraska, in the sandhills, a lot of those pastures got burnt, and we’ve had fires in the Panhandle, where we’ve actually lost cattle due to the fires.”

In northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, where All Grass Farms graze their cattle, conditions are currently “abnormally dry,” according to the National Weather Service.

“It’s been dry, so we’re a little worried,” said McConville, explaining that, as a farmer, much of his life — and business — relies on conditions out of his control.

“We’re hoping for some rain soon, as is everybody, I guess, in this part of the country.”

Drought damages pasturelands, reduces the natural feed supply and restricts water access needed for raising livestock. The result is additional operating costs — or worse.

“Drought-induced herd liquidation” as Steckler calls it.

If ranchers don’t have the essential resources needed to raise cattle — feed, water and space for grazing — they’re forced to cull their herds. That means even less meat making it to production.

But drought isn’t the only environmental factor. Disease poses another threat.

Ranchers have to be vigilant about ticks, flies and other pests that can infect livestock. Asian longhorned ticks, cattle fever ticks and Ceratopogonidae, or no-see-ums, spread diseases that can be fatal to cattle.

More recently, an outbreak of New World screwworm in Mexico has become a cause for concern. To stop the spread of the disease, the U.S. cut off all live cattle imports from the country in July 2025 — an added supply constraint given Mexico is regularly a top supplier to its northern neighbor.

“Our calf crops have gotten smaller for the last eight years, so when you take that, and then you don’t get another million head of cattle, roughly, that you would have gotten from Mexico, that makes that tight supply even tighter,” commented Peel.

Despite these efforts, in early June the U.S. Department of Agriculture discovered the flesh-eating parasite in a calf in Texas. Since then, 34 cases have been confirmed in pets and livestock in the U.S., the majority being found in cattle, according to data from the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.

In response, federal and state agriculture officials have taken action to “contain and monitor the movement of the pest,” including implementing quarantines for livestock in affected areas.

While working to stop its spread, the USDA claims the presence of New World screwworm domestically has not altered the cattle supply, though the agency acknowledged it could drive even higher prices due to costly on-farm surveillance and prevention measures.

Economic factors

While environmental factors are contributing to the tight beef supply, so are a number of economic variables.

“There’s been several factors that have been impacting our cattle numbers that I don’t think (are) receiving enough attention,” said Steckler. “One of those factors is the fact that we have an aging population of producers.”

According to the U.S. Census of Agriculture, the average age of American producers, those who operate farms and ranches, is 58.1. Beef producers skew slightly older, with nearly 40% aged 65+.

Cattle farming is demanding work for individuals of any age, and with the market swinging in producers’ favor, many see it as good a time as any to cease operations.

“The industry has been talking about and dealing with the aging population of agricultural producers. That’s not a new issue, but … maybe they’ve decided this is the time that they’re going to get out, they’re going to take advantage of the high cattle prices now,” said Peel.

But it’s not just a matter of older farmers aging out of the workforce. There’s also not enough young labor to take over those operations and their herds. With already slim margins and a grueling 365-day-a-year workload, fewer people see cattle farming as a viable way to make a living.

“If a young person really wants to get into the business, land costs, equipment, facilities, the cattle, it’s extremely expensive, and profit margins are not high enough for them to be able to make a go of it,” said Steckler.

Given the inherent uncertainty in the cattle industry, those who do decide to “make a go of it” are often forced to rely on other jobs as a supplemental — and sometimes primary — source of income.

“You can’t make it, unfortunately, without having an off-farm job to provide that income stability,” said Jackie Batista who, along with her husband, runs Irish Grove Farms in Pecatonica, Illinois. Both keep full-time jobs outside of their farming operations.

Moreover, farmers are not immune to inflation. As everyday Americans deal with higher prices associated with food, transportation and housing, so do farmers.

“Feed, operating costs, (and) diesel fuel doubled in the last month,” said Sean Townsend of Townsend Cattle and Meats, a family-owned cow-calf operation out of McHenry, Illinois.

Like everything else, raising cattle is getting more expensive. From the land they lease, to the grass and grain they feed their steers and the fuel needed to both operate farm equipment and transport meat across the country, prices are on the rise. Overall, inflation is up 4.2% year-over-year, according to the latest consumer price report.

“We’re not sitting back just getting rich off of low cattle numbers and high beef prices,” said Batista.

Consumer demand

But despite stubbornly high prices, people are still buying beef. There’s been a resurgence in protein-heavy diets and updated nutritional guidance released jointly by the USDA and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services puts increased emphasis on whole foods like red meat.

“It’s popular to eat beef again,” Steckler said. “If you look at the numbers, people are not backing off even at the higher prices.”

What’s more, demand is only likely to increase in the coming months.

Across the country, summer marks the start of grilling season, with backyard barbecues and all-beef burgers and brats considered a warm-weather staple.

Already, ground beef patties are retailing for $6.77 a pound on average, with grass-fed, USDA Organic varieties going for $9.89 a pound, according to the latest Weekly Grocery Store Feature Activity report. The average price for a pound of brisket is $6.18, and roast beef from the deli averages $14.01 per pound.

But that’s the cheap stuff. Want something a little nicer? A tenderloin steak is currently priced at $21.50 per pound nationwide. A year ago that same cut would’ve been $6.50 cheaper.

It’s not just groceries. Dining out is getting more expensive too.

“We have absolutely seen a rise in beef prices,” said Drucker, the iconic Chicago drive-in’s operator.

Like operating a farm, the cost of running a restaurant is going up. Chicago-area business owners say a whole slew of expenses contribute, from labor and energy to paper products and, of course, beef.

“It’s our biggest cost, is the cost of beef, and our margins are getting squeezed on a continual basis,” said John Aretos, co-owner of Johnnie’s Beef, a family-owned Italian beef joint with locations in Elmwood Park and Arlington Heights.

“Since 2022 our beef prices, in particular, have gone up 45%,” said Aretos.

“It’s maddening, you know. It’s pretty maddening.”

That figure is in line with what folks are seeing across the country. Since January 2022, the average price of beef has increased by 48%, according to consumer price data from BLS. In the Midwest, prices have gone up more than 60% in that same period.

It’s pushing shops like Drucker’s and Aretos’ to raise their prices.

“When we raise prices, we don’t do it nonchalantly,” said Drucker. “We do it with a lot of pain.”

Amid rising costs, food and beverage retailers feel a constant push and pull between staying profitable and staying loyal to their longtime customers who’ve come to expect a certain quality of food at a certain price point. Aretos calls it “an obsession almost” — evaluating expenses and the cost of goods sold and comparing that to the prices charged for each menu item.

“(We have) to be able to charge enough that a customer is willing to pay, but still cover our costs at the same time,” Drucker explained.

Currently, fries and their namesake Superdawg, a pure beef hot dog with mustard, chopped onions, hot peppers, tangy piccalilli and a dill pickle spear served on a poppy seed bun, sells for $9.30.

But with beef costs showing little signs of dropping, more price hikes could be coming this summer.

“As much as we don’t like to raise prices, we may be forced to,” she said.

One positive? With grocery prices skyrocketing, buying local could be a cheaper alternative now.

Townsend said he’s selling his ground beef for $6.50 per pound out of his farm market store, at least 50 cents cheaper than what you’ll find in popular Chicago-area grocery stores. At Jewel-Osco a pound of ground beef costs around $8.49 a pound. At Whole Foods it’s $9.49, and at Mariano’s it’s $10.29 a pound, according to the retailers’ websites. Even at Aldi, typically considered the more affordable option among big U.S. grocery chains, ground beef is retailing for $6.99 a pound.

“We really can’t keep our shelves full,” said Townsend.

The dilemma

Wherever you shop, don’t expect prices to come down anytime soon.

The supply issue isn’t something that can be fixed overnight. Unlike other livestock, cows are big, slow-growing animals that only produce one offspring at a time and take about nine months to calve. After that calf is born, it takes another 24 months before it’s ready for slaughter.

Coupled with processing and distribution times, it’s about three years from the time a cow is bred to the time its meat hits the market.

“It’s not like raising chickens, where in 21 days they’re hatched,” said Steckler. “It takes a lot longer for the cattle market to rebound. I would estimate it’ll take us five to 10 years to get to level, steady numbers. And that’s if we don’t have a continuation in the decrease.”

To actually expand the domestic cattle inventory and return to “level, steady numbers,” you need heifers — or young female cows — for breeding. But with the beef supply so low, many of those breeder cows are being used instead for meat.

“You have a choice. You can either eat them now or you can invest in future production, and that’s the dilemma that we’re in right now,” said Peel.

It’s somewhat of a paradox. To solve the cattle shortage and bring beef prices down, you have to hold more cows back for breeding, which means less meat making its way to market in the interim.

“In order to grow the herd, we have to actually take that tight supply and make it even tighter,” he explained.

In other words?

“It’s got to get worse before it gets better.”